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Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Basic Stats

Brian Thomas Jr.
ADP: 10.1
Bye: 12
Experience: 0
Age: 21.9
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 209
40 Time: 4.33

Burst Score (Rank): 128.50 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.44 (98%)

Brian Thomas Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.8 52.9 0.3 7.1
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 51 0.3 6.8

Brian Thomas Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#45 Wide Receiver

176.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
10.1 60.2 865.6 4.96 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

When Calvin Ridley was not re-signed, the Jaguars were pigeonholed into addressing WR in the draft. Thomas was the ideal scenario with his red-zone upside.

Thomas led the FBS in receiving TDs last year and is a 99th-percentile athlete with great size.

He’s unlikely to get a ton of targets as a rookie, though, so he’s unlikely to be an attractive weekly fantasy starter. He is ultimately more of a WR4 and might be overdrafted based on his draft capital and athletic profile.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thomas was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • He played three years at LSU.
  • Thomas posted career-best numbers in 2023:
    • 86 targets
    • 68 catches
    • 1,177 receiving yards
    • 17 receiving TDs
  • Thomas’ breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
  • He was near the top of the leaderboards in the SEC:
    • Fourth in yards per game (90.5)
    • Sixth in receptions per game (5.2)
    • Seventh in yards per catch (17.31)
    • First in receiving TDs
  • Thomas was named second-team All-SEC.
  • He measured in at 6 '3, 209 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.33 40-yard time. He earned a 9.84 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thomas will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added free-agent Gabriel Davis. He, Thomas, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
  • Thomas enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thomas’ profile will produce at 77-80% of his peak value at age-21.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

9:22pm EDT 9/15/24

Another Dud for Trevor Lawrence

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence labored through a Week 2 loss vs. Cleveland. Lawrence posted 220 scoreless yards, while the Jags offense totaled one TD. At one point, the Jags went 11 straight possessions (starting in Week 1) without a score.

View Full Story »

Jacksonville's preseason opener found WR Christian Kirk excluded from two-WR sets. The Jaguars opened Saturday's game against the Chiefs with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. as the WRs in "12" personnel (two TEs) for the first two plays. Kirk entered for three-WR sets and ultimately played seven snaps vs. nine for Thomas and Davis. (QB Trevor Lawrence played nine as well.) Thomas and Davis ran five routes to Kirk's four. Davis drew the only two WR targets before the first team left.

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Jaguars first-round WR Brian Thomas Jr. has reportedly struggled a bit at the start of training camp. "Maybe he's just on a rookie learning curve, but the Jaguars' first-round wide receiver has yet to make an impact through three days of team drills," writes Zach Goodall of Jaguars Wire.

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The Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence agreed to a five-year, $275 million contract extension with $200 million guaranteed, ESPN reports. Lawrence now ranks second in the NFL in average annual salary and fourth in guaranteed money. The extension tacks on to the final two years of his current contract, meaning that Lawrence is now signed with the Jaguars through the 2030 season. He'll be 32 when the deal expires.

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The Jaguars released WR Zay Jones, saving $4.18 million against the 2024 salary cap. This move was inevitable after Jacksonville took WR Brian Thomas in the first round of the draft -- after signing WR Gabriel Davis in free agency. Jones missed seven games with knee and hamstring injuries last year but caught 82 balls back in 2022. The 29-year-old can still help an NFL team, although Jones is not a good bet to be a major fantasy asset in 2024 or beyond.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 104.0
Position Rank #60 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
307
527
1,042
Dynasty Write-up
Playing alongside QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers, Thomas enjoyed a third-year breakout. He led LSU in TD catches in 2023 (17) and nearly matched Nabers in yards per catch (17.3 to 17.6). Thomas is a long strider at 6’2, 209 pounds and tracks the ball like a veteran. He also brings desirable NFL athleticism (4.34 forty, 38.5-inch vertical). Jacksonville gives him a shot to eventually develop into the No. 1 target for Trevor Lawrence.
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