Michael Penix Jr. Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

After sitting behind Kirk Cousins for the first 14 games of last season, Penix was called in from the bullpen for the final three outings and averaged:

• 246 passing yards
• 1.0 TDs
• 1.0 INTs
• 3.7 rushing yards
• 0.3 rushing TDs

Penix ranked 18th among QBs in total fantasy points over those three weeks. His production steadily improved, though, with weekly finishes of QB31, QB23, and QB6.

Efficiency Metrics

Penix was an aggressive passer across his three outings, registering a 10.1-yard average target depth. That would have ranked second on the season among 34 qualifying QBs.

Largely because of that high average target depth, Penix completed just 58.0% of his passes. But he averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which would have ranked 15th among those 34 QBs.

He was effective throwing deep, completing 43.8% of his passes 20+ yards downfield. That was good for ninth among 46 QBs with 10+ deep attempts. Penix led those 46 QBs in Pro Football Focus deep passing grade.

Penix’s 87.6 overall PFF passing grade ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks last season. That mark led all six qualifying rookie QBs. In fact, it was the best mark from a rookie since Robert Griffin’s 88.3 in 2021.

Impressive stuff — although it came on a small sample.

Offensive Context

Penix entered a nice situation last year, with a pass-catching corps of WR Drake London, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. Atlanta’s offensive line ranked ninth in PFF pass-blocking grade and 18th in ESPN pass block win rate.

The Falcons did lean on the run a bit more in Penix’s three games vs. Cousins’ 14.

14 Cousins games:

• -4.0% pass rate over expected
• 56.2% neutral pass rate
• 54.3% pass rate

3 Penix games:

• -4.7% pass rate over expected
• 53.9% neutral pass rate
• 51.0% pass rate

Historical Production & Trends

Penix was the eighth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after a six-year college career. He struggled with injuries across four seasons at Indiana before turning in two huge seasons at Washington.

He led the Pac-12 with 4,641 passing yards in 2022, tossing 31 TDs vs just eight TDs on 8.4 yards per attempt. Penix was even better in 2023, throwing for an FBS-high 4,903 yards with 36 TDs on 8.8 yards per attempt. He became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes in 2015 and 2016.

Penix ranked 10th in Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2022 and climbed to sixth in 2023.

Injury History

Here’s Penix’s extensive injury history:

• 2018 - right ACL tear
• 2019 - SC joint injury to his right (non-throwing) shoulder
• 2020 - another right ACL tear
• 2021 - AC joint injury to his left (throwing) shoulder

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Kirk Cousins remains on Atlanta’s roster as of mid-June. He’s still a likely trade candidate if the Falcons lower the asking price, but Penix is the starter regardless of Cousins’ status.

“Michael Penix Jr. is our QB, and he’ll continue being our QB,” HC Raheem Morris said in February.

Supporting Cast

The Falcons return their top 10 targets from last season, highlighted by:

• WR Drake London
• WR Darnell Mooney
• WR Ray-Ray McCloud
• TE Kyle Pitts
• RB Bijan Robinson
• RB Tyler Allgeier

It’s a strong group. Last year’s Falcons ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade.

The offensive line was solid last year, too, ranking:

• 9th in PFF pass blocking grade
• 18th in ESPN pass block win rate

Four of five starters from that unit return, with C Drew Dalman the only departure. He’ll be replaced by C Ryan Neuzil, who went undrafted back in 2021. Neuzil struggled in eight starts in place of Dalman last year and is a question mark heading into 2025. But this still projects to be a strong offensive line overall.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The 2024 Falcons were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense. They ranked:

• 9th in pace
• 8th in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

As mentioned above, Atlanta went even run-heavier in Penix’s three starts last season. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025 — but this still projects as a run-leaning offense centered on RB Bijan Robinson.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

Production & Efficiency Trends

On top of a run-leaning offense hurting Penix’s projected fantasy value, he’s also unlikely to provide much production on the ground.

He totaled just 11 rushing yards across his three games last year and averaged 8.4 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry in college.

Penix surprised with a 4.46-second 40 time at his Pro Day, but there’s nothing else on his resume to suggest big rushing production is coming in the NFL.