Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Lawrence suffered an AC joint injury in left shoulder injury in Week 9 last year that cost him the following two games. He returned in Week 13 but lasted just 19 snaps before sustaining a concussion. That shut him down for the rest of the season.

Lawrence averaged 223 passing yards with 1.2 TDs across his nine full games. He tacked on 12.6 rushing yards and 0.3 TDs per game to rank 13th among QBs in fantasy points per game through Week 9.

Lawrence finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just two of those nine games, although he sank outside the top 18 just three times.

Efficiency Metrics

Lawrence set a three-year low with a 60.6% completion rate last year — but his 7.2 yards per attempt was a career best.

That was largely due to a career-high 9.9 intended air yards per pass attempt. That was second-highest among 34 QBs with 250+ attempts.

Still, Lawrence ranked 33rd among those 34 QBs in adjusted completion rate and 31st in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected.

He finished 19th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Offensive Context

Lawrence played under dead-man-walking HC Doug Pederson and behind an offensive line that ranked 19th in ESPN pass block win rate and 20th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

TE Evan Engram missed four of Lawrence’s nine full games, and WR Gabe Davis was a total bust. WR Brian Thomas turned in a huge rookie season but didn’t really get rolling until the second half of the season. He averaged 66.1 yards across nine games with Lawrence vs. 85.9 yards over his final eight outings.

Pro Football Focus ranked Jacksonville 23rd in receiving grade on the season.

The 2024 Jaguars were a fast-paced offense, finishing third in neutral pace. But they ranked dead last with 58.4 plays per game.

Historical Production & Trends

Here are Lawrence’s finishes in fantasy points per game through four seasons:

• 2021 - 34th
• 2022 - 13th
• 2023 - 16th
• 2024 - 13th

He averaged 242 and 251 passing yards per game in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But Lawrence has underwhelmed in the TD department, topping out at 25 scores in 2022 and averaging only 1.15 per game for his career. Lawrence’s career 3.4% TD rate ranks 39th among 42 active QBs with 1,000+ career attempts.

He’s provided sneaky rushing production, though. Lawrence’s career average of 18.1 rushing yards per game ranks 13th among 51 active QBs with 20+ career starts.

Injury History

Lawrence had surgery on his left shoulder in December. He’s expected to be a full-go for the start of training camp.

Lawrence missed just one game over his first three NFL seasons — with a sprained right shoulder in 2023. He played through hamstring, ankle, toe, and knee injuries during that stretch. He landed in concussion protocol in 2023 but was cleared by the following week.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Lawrence remains locked in as Jacksonville’s starter after signing a five-year, $275 million extension in June 2024. His $55 million average annual salary is tied for second among QBs.

Supporting Cast

WR Brian Thomas Jr. returns after a dazzling 1,282-yard rookie season. He’ll be joined by No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter.

A rare two-way prospect, Hunter starred at both WR and CB in college. Offensively, he racked up 96 catches, 1,258 yards, and 15 TDs last year at Colorado. We’ll see exactly how the Jaguars deploy Hunter’s dual skill set. But Coen said shortly after the draft that Hunter will "primarily play on offense” to start.

Thomas and Hunter have the potential to give Lawrence one of the best WR duos in the league.

Jacksonville released TE Evan Engram in March. The 30-year-old averaged a career-low 7.8 yards per catch last year and missed eight games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. He’ll be replaced by TE Brenton Strange, who flashed with 11-73-0 and 4-60-0 lines over the final four weeks of last season.

The Jaguars re-tooled their offensive line this offseason, adding C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari in free agency. Hainsey played under new Jags HC Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. Mekari is capable of playing all five spots on the line but is expected to start at RG.

This is unlikely to be a dominant offensive line in 2025, but it should be better than last year’s unit.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to top-four finishes in both points and total yards. More importantly, he helped QB Baker Mayfield to a career-best season. Mayfield set personal bests last year in:

• Passing yards (4,500)
• Passing TDs (41)
• Completion rate (71.4%)
• Yards per attempt (7.9)
• Passing TD rate (7.2%)

Mayfield produced 11.3% more passing yards, 46.4% more passing TDs, and 31.8% more fantasy points in 2024 under Coen than he did under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Only two QBs scored more fantasy points than Mayfield last year.

Lawrence’s career numbers stack up nicely against Mayfield’s numbers prior to working with Coen last year:

Production & Efficiency Trends

Lawrence is entering his fifth NFL season but turns just 26 in October. According to our aging-curve research, he should still be on the ascent. QBs, on average, don’t peak until age 28.