Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Credit Tua for rebounding from an injury-filled 2021-2022.

Now, in year three with Mike McDaniel, there should be complete comfort in an offense that also returns target hogs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Tua’s lack of rushing cuts into his ceiling. But as we’ve seen in the past, he’s capable of high-end outcomes in the right matchup. Continue to treat him as a fantasy spot starter.

What We Learned Last Year

• Tagovailoa pushed aside concussion concerns to stay healthy across 17 games.
  • He set career highs across the board: 560 attempts, 69.3% completion rate, 4,624 yards, and 29 TDs.
  • As for the improved durability: Tua did well to get the ball out quickly (2.26- second average). That was the quickest time among qualifiers.
  • He took a sack on only 4.9% of his dropbacks, a mark only three qualifying QBs beat (Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen).
• He posted one of the league’s lowest scramble rates (2.7%).
  • He’s managed only 14.4 total fantasy points via rushing from 2022-2023.
• As colleague Jared Smola noted in this article, Tua’s been boom or bust in 29 healthy games with HC Mike McDaniel.
  • He’s posted seven top-five QB weeks (24%)
  • And 14 weeks (48%) outside the top-15.
  • Essentially, he’s performed better in best ball formats.
• Tua benefited from another dynamic season from Tyreek Hill. He and Jaylen Waddle combined to miss only four games.
• That duo combined to see a 50% target share and account for 60.8% of Tua’s yardage.
• Miami wasn’t a pass-heavy offense. They ranked 12th in pass rate over expected; 22nd in raw pass rate.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Dolphins signed Tua to a massive July extension. He's under contract through the 2028 season.
• He dropped 10-15 pounds since season’s end.
  • Here’s HC Mike McDaniel on the reasoning. "We were not on an off-season weight program last year, it was strength... He felt like he could have the same amount of strength and kind of reshape his body and be a little lighter on his feet."
• The Dolphins return top WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There’s no reason to expect a role change with that duo.
  • Miami added Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (rookie), Tahj Washington (rookie), and Jonnu Smith.
  • Beckham was fine in 14 games with Baltimore last year. But he turns 32 in November and remains a clear injury risk.
  • Malik looks best suited to contribute among the rookies. He adds an explosive slot element.
  • Smith faded down the stretch in ‘23 but adds a playmaking upgrade on TE Durham Smythe.
• Miami’s O-line will be one to watch closely. OTs Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson return, but G Robert Hunt departed in free agency.
  • Miami added C Aaron Brewer, but overall, this unit has a lot to prove.
  • Armstead, 33, is also a red flag injury risk.
• Note: Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate last season.