Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 11

     

Welcome to Week 11’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 11 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 11!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Commanders at Eagles (48.5)
t-2. Ravens at Steelers (48.0)
t-2. Seahawks at 49ers (48.0)
t-2. Bengals at Chargers (48.0)
5. Jaguars at Lions (47.0)
6. Chiefs at Bills (46.0)

       

Lowest Game Totals

12. Texans at Cowboys (42.0)
13. Packers at Bears (40.5)
14. Vikings at Titans (39.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (30.25)
2. 49ers (27.25)
3. Eagles (26.0)
4. Dolphins (25.75)
5. Ravens (25.5)

   

Lowest Implied Points

24. Raiders (18.25)
t-25. Bears (17.25)
t-25. Cowboys (17.25)
t-27. Jaguars (16.75)
t-27. Titans (16.75)

       

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Texans (65.4)
2. Lions (64.8)
3. Chiefs (64.4)
4. 49ers (64.1)
5. Browns (63.9)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

t-24. Titans (60.8)
t-24. Raiders (60.8)
26. Colts (60.3)
27. Cowboys (59.2)
28. Jaguars (58.5)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Commanders at Eagles (26.6 seconds)
2. Rams at Patriots (27.1 seconds)
3. Browns at Saints (27.2 seconds)
t-4. Colts at Jets (27.3 seconds)
t-4. Falcons at Broncos (27.3 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

11. Texans at Cowboys (28.1 seconds)
12. Bengals at Chargers (28.5 seconds)
13. Raiders at Dolphins (28.6 seconds)
14. Vikings at Titans (30.1 seconds)

      

Weather Concerns

Check back Sunday morning.

 

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Ravens at Steelers (+77.8%)
2. Lions vs. Jaguars (+65.6%)
3. 49ers vs. Seahawks (+48.6%)
4. Rams at Patriots (+48.5%)
5. Chargers vs. Bengals (+47.5%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

24. Raiders at Dolphins (-5.6%)
25. Bears vs. Packers (-12.4%)
26. Cowboys vs. Texans (-16.1%)
27. Titans vs. Vikings (-31.5%)
28. Browns at Saints (-32.5%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jared Goff vs. Jaguars (+45%)
2. Russell Wilson vs. Ravens (+31%)
3. Justin Herbert vs. Bengals (+27%)
4. C.J. Stroud at Cowboys (+23%)
5. Aaron Rodgers vs. Colts (+14%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Kirk Cousins at Broncos (-18%)
25. Jayden Daniels at Eagles (-23%)
26. Lamar Jackson at Steelers (-26%)
27. Desmond Ridder at Dolphins (-29%)
28. Jordan Love at Bears (-32%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Packers at Bears (+18.0%)
2. Lions vs. Jaguars (+8.4%)
3. Eagles vs. Commanders (+7.8%)
4. Colts at Jets (+2.4%)
5. Ravens at Steelers (+1.9%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

24. Raiders at Dolphins (-24.3%)
25. Patriots vs. Rams (-28.6%)
26. Steelers vs. Ravens (-34.9%)
27. Cowboys vs. Texans (-42.1%)
28. Titans vs. Vikings (-42.4%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Bills (+23%)
2. Lions vs. Jaguars (+23%)
3. Dolphins vs. Raiders (+21%)
4. Browns at Saints (+18%)
5. Texans at Cowboys (+11%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Jaguars at Lions (-18%)
25. Bengals at Chargers (-19%)
26. Titans vs. Vikings (-23%)
27. Commanders at Eagles (-25%)
28. Bills vs. Chiefs (-45%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers vs. Ravens (+40%)
2. Lions vs. Jaguars (+24%)
3. Saints vs. Browns (+16%)
4. Jaguars at Lions (+13%)
5. Chargers vs. Bengals (+11%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Commanders at Eagles (-16%)
25. Dolphins vs. Raiders (-16%)
26. Vikings at Titans (-17%)
27. Falcons at Broncos (-19%)
28. Packers at Bears (-24%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson, and Cooper Kupp vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Benjamin St. Juste, and Noah Igbinoghene

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Texans CB Jalen Pitre

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

Browns WRs Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore vs. Saints CBs Alontae Taylor, Shemar Jean-Charles, and Ugo Amadi

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Seahawks WRs D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers CBs Isaac Yiadom, Renardo Green, and Deommodore Lenoir

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown vs. Eagles CBs Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Bears CB Kyler Gordon

Chiefs WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson

Colts WRs Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, and Josh Downs vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Bills WRs Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jets vs. Colts (+49%)
2. Lions vs. Jaguars (+35%)
3. Bears vs. Packers (+33%)
4. Dolphins vs. Raiders (+30%)
5. 49ers vs. Seahawks (+26%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Texans at Cowboys (-23%)
25. Cowboys vs. Texans (-33%)
26. Saints vs. Browns (-34%)
27. Jaguars at Lions (-36%)
28. Commanders at Eagles (-41%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Saints vs. Browns (+128%)
2. Dolphins vs. Raiders (+81%)
3. Rams at Patriots (+77%)
4. Vikings at Titans (+70%)
5. Browns at Saints (+65%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Ravens at Steelers (-33%)
25. Jaguars at Lions (-43%)
26. Chiefs at Bills (-49%)
27. Eagles vs. Commanders (-67%)
28. Steelers vs. Ravens (-91%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Daniel Carlson at Dolphins (+63%)
2. Wil Lutz vs. Falcons (+37%)
3. John Parker Romo at Titans (+32%)
4. Jason Sanders vs. Raiders (+29%)
5. Dustin Hopkins at Saints (+26%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Tyler Bass vs. Chiefs (-22%)
25. Justin Tucker at Steelers (-25%)
26. Jake Elliott vs. Commanders (-26%)
27. Evan McPherson at Chargers (-43%)
28. Nick Folk vs. Vikings (-43%)