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Week 9 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Dak Prescott ($6,300) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) + Jake Ferguson ($5,100)

The Cowboys offense was awesome after the bye last season, averaging 32.3 points per game. Prescott averaged 27.4 fantasy points across those 11 games; Lamb averaged 28.5.

Dallas came out of this year’s bye to score 24 points in San Francisco. Prescott and Lamb combined for 58.2 DraftKings points.

They have a chance to keep rolling on Sunday against a Falcons pass defense sitting 24th in DVOA. Atlanta ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 26th against WRs.

This game’s 52-point over/under is highest on the week. And the Cowboys are 3-point underdogs, so there’s a good chance they’re playing from behind.

If Prescott delivers a tournament-winning score, it’ll likely come via big passing numbers. (He has just 24 rushing yards all season.) That makes him a good double-stack candidate with Ferguson, who’s averaged 7.4 targets per game on an 18% target share over the last five games. The Falcons rank 18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Derek Carr ($5,600) + Chris Olave ($6,100)

The Saints offense isn’t sneaking up on the field this week. But most of our competitors will be getting their exposure through RB Alvin Kamara.

He’s an awesome play. But this Carr + Olave stack gives us huge leverage over the field if the Saints’ TDs happen to come in the passing game.

The Panthers have been just as bad against the pass as the run this season. They head into Week 9 sitting:

• 27th in passing yards allowed
• 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed
• 30th in passing TDs allowed
• 31st in pass defense DVOA
• 31st in EPA allowed per pass
• 30th in passing success rate allowed

If Carr delivers a tournament-winning outing, he’ll very likely bring Olave with him. WR Rashid Shaheed’s absence leaves Olave as a target hog. He drew 14 targets on a 33% share last week.

Also consider:

• Jameis Winston ($5,400) + Cedric Tillman ($4,300)
• Gardner Minshew ($4,500) + Brock Bowers ($6,000)

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,800)

It’s all lining up for a big Kamara game on Sunday.

He’s getting QB Derek Carr back. RBs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams are out. And he gets a Panthers defense that ranks bottom four in:

• Run defense DVOA
• EPA allowed per rush
• Rushing success rate allowed
• Adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs

Kamara already has a 47-point outing this season and could have another “had-to-have-him” outing this weekend.

James Conner, Cardinals ($6,600)

With Alvin Kamara above Conner in price and Chase Brown below both likely to be very popular, I expect Conner to get lost in the shuffle. That makes him an attractive tournament play considering his projected volume and matchup.

Conner has continued to dominate Cardinals rushing work over the last two weeks, totaling 39 carries.

He's also seen a spike in passing-game usage, registering two of his three biggest route rates of the season. That's led to seven targets over those two games.

Only eight RBs have averaged more expected PPR points per game than Conner over the last two weeks.

Sunday brings a run-funnel Bears defense that ranks sixth in pass defense DVOA but 22nd in run defense. They’ve allowed 4.7 yards per carry to RBs.

Conner should be the focal point of the offense in this one.

Chase Brown, Bengals ($5,900)

We’re currently projecting Brown for 18% ownership in large-field tournaments. I expect him to be closer to 50% in small fields.

It’s not a situation I’m looking to fade. This is an explosive back likely to get 20+ opportunities for a team with a 26.25-point implied total against the Raiders’ 29th-ranked RB defense.

There are enough other strong RB options this week that Brown isn’t a must play. But I’ll be looking to play him more than the field.

Also consider:

• Kyren Williams, Rams ($8,000)
• Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,400)
• Ken Walker, Seahawks ($7,300)
• De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($6,700)
• Tyrone Tracy, Giants ($5,500)

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,100)

The Eagles have gone extremely run-heavy over their last few games. But if there’s a spot for them to lean into the pass, this is it. They get a Jaguars team on Sunday that ranks 11th in run defense DVOA but dead last in pass defense DVOA.

It’s a big mismatch in favor of Brown against this secondary that sits 24th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades and 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Brown has already topped 25 DraftKings points in two of four games this season.

Jalen Coker, Panthers ($3,600)

If we want to pay up for guys like Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown, we need to save money elsewhere. Coker can help.

The rookie is trending up, posting a 4-78-1 line on six targets against a strong Broncos pass defense last week. 

WR Diontae Johnson is in Baltimore now, and WR Adam Thielen is out again. HC Dave Canales confirmed this week that Coker will play a similar role going forward.

Last week, he ran a route on 80% of pass plays and lined up in the slot 71% of the time. 

He gets a Saints defense on Sunday that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to slot receivers.

Also consider:

• CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($8,800)
• Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,600)
• Malik Nabers, Giants ($7,500)
• Drake London, Falcons ($6,700)
• Chris Olave, Saints ($6,100)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers ($5,600)
• Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($5,500)
• Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,400)
• Jakobi Meyers, Raiders ($5,300)
• Cedric Tillman, Browns ($4,300)
• Jake Bobo, Seahawks ($3,400)

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill, Saints ($3,800)

Here’s another way to get big leverage off chalky Alvin Kamara.

If Kamara disappoints on Sunday, there’s a good chance it’s because Hill steals the rushing TDs. He already has a two-TD game on his resume this season.

The Saints will be without No. 2 and 3 RBs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams this weekend. They have a big 25.5-point implied total against a Panthers defense that’s allowed a league-high 14 rushing scores.

Also consider:

• Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,000)
• Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,800)
• Evan Engram, Jaguars ($5,300)
• Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($5,100)
• Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,900)
• Jonnu Smith, Dolphins ($3,500)
• Mike Gesicki, Bengals ($3,100)
• A.J. Barner, Seahawks ($2,600)

Defense/Special Teams

• Commanders ($3,400)
• Chargers ($3,300)
• Eagles ($3,100)
• Bills ($3,000)
• Bears ($2,800)
• Giants ($2,300)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.