Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Since scoring 7 times as a rookie, McLaurin's TD counts have gone 4, 5, 5, 4.

It’s a lack of scoring that’s kept him from a fantasy WR1 breakout.

We’re not counting on a scoring surge this fall. But we’re intrigued by the arrival of Jayden Daniels, while Washington’s current pass-catching corps should afford another 120ish targets.

At bottom, McLaurin fits best as a mid-tier WR3.

What We Learned Last Year

• McLaurin battled through a case of turf toe in August.
• He returned for Week 1 and played alongside QB Sam Howell, who led the NFL in attempts.
• The former Ohio State star saw 128 targets – good for a 22.2% target share.
  • An inefficient season followed. McLaurin tied or set career lows in TDs (4), yards per catch (12.7), and yards per route run (1.56).
• The underwhelming season certainly trickled down to fantasy.
  • He finished as a top-15 WR only twice.
  • He ranked outside the top-36 WRs eight times.
• On the positive side, McLaurin remained durable. He didn’t miss a game for the third straight season.

What to Expect in 2024

• McLaurin returns for year six. He’s under contract for two more seasons.
• Washington lost Curtis Samuel to free agency and replaced him with late-Round 3 rookie Luke McCaffrey.
  • McCaffrey is a convered QB who’s on the raw side. Most analysts expected him to be a Round 5-6 pick.
  • Samuel’s absence removes 91 targets from the ‘23 offense.
  • Washington added TEs Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott. Their presence doesn’t impact McLaurin’s role.
• QB Jayden Daniels arrives as the second overall pick.
  • He’ll turn 24 in December and brings plenty of experience (55 starts).
  • He’s a top-tier athlete with the ability to extend plays – a theoretical benefit for McLaurin’s downfield upside.
  • Note: a healthy 22.7% of McLaurin’s 2023 targets came on deep balls (20+ air yards).
• OC Kliff Kingsburry enters year one in Washington.
  • His Arizona offenses ranked 18th, 15th, 18th, and 4th in pass attempts.
  • Kingsburry’s units ranked 1st, 6th, 8th, and 6th in total WR target share. Volume shouldn’t be an issue for McLaurin.