Fantasy Football Best Ball

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Draft Smarter in Best Ball: Who to Target, Who to Fade, and How to Find Top Values

Three to Fade and Six(?) to Target in Best Ball

Can I go ahead and say it? Have we now officially started fantasy football draft season?

The casual players you share a league with might think it’s still ridiculously early. But if you’re reading this article, then you’re probably thinking, “Started? I’ve been drafting for months.”

Best ball drafting has changed the timeline. And now that we’re past …

• early free agency
• the NFL Draft
• and the NFL schedule release

… all that’s left is seeing which of our favorite targets tears a patellar tendon in camp.

It’s best ball draft season. And that means fresh best ball rankings …

Why Are Best Ball Rankings Better?

Aren’t “best ball rankings” just fantasy football rankings with a different name on the top – maybe with Rashid Shaheed moved up a few spots?

No. (But kinda yes to that second part.)

Our best ball rankings incorporate Best Ball Factor, a multiplier we designed to give a boost to players with spike-week potential. That doesn’t mean we’re telling you to fill a roster with Jameson Williams types. But it does mean a player like Williams – or Shaheed – gains some value in best ball rankings vs. regular redraft rankings. 

Why? Because a player who thrives on spike weeks while seeing limited target volume could get annoying when you have to set your lineup every week. But missing out on those spike weeks en route to a mediocre best ball finish? That’s really annoying.

Rankings Differences Start Near the Top

If you want to see the effects of Best Ball Factor, you won’t have to scroll far down the rankings.

The top of our best ball rankings – which default to Underdog Fantasy’s half-PPR scoring – reveal this three-player top tier …

Flip over to the regular half-PPR rankings, though, and you’ll find Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey mixed in among the top 5 – and inside Tier 1.

Feel free to compare the rankings further if you want to scout more differences. But your best version of our best ball rankings will come when you actually sync your draft to create a Draft War Room specific to your format and draft.

We’ll get more into that at the end of this article.

Don’t Ignore Best Ball ADP as You Draft

Unless you’re playing an uncommon format, ADP always matter for your fantasy football drafting.

But best ball ADP matters even more. This is a high-volume game. You’re most likely drafting a bunch of teams into a tournament that includes thousands of entries. That glut of entries means a constant wealth of worthwhile ADP info.

You don’t want to simply follow ADP throughout your draft, because you’ll have a tough time differentiating that roster from many others. But regularly reaching beyond ADP for a certain player has been shown to hurt your chances of competing.

So what’s the solution? Be strategic.

Don’t reach consistently. But we can pinpoint some particularly good and bad values within the market. In fact, that’s the whole reason we built our ADP Market Index.

Let’s use that index to highlight some guys you might want to target – or fade – in your best ball drafts …

Three Overvalued Players by Underdog Fantasy ADP (2025)

There’s an important difference between “fade” and “avoid” for high-volume best ball drafting.

Back when we were just drafting a few fantasy football rosters a year, you could completely avoid a potential landmine in ADP. But the more rosters you’re drafting, the more you need to build in some humility.

No matter how much work we put in, we’ll be wrong about some players. And some guys will simply get hurt. Being completely out on a key player in a best ball tourney can mean the difference between a high finish and missing the money.

So if you’re drafting a bunch of entries, then fading that player – taking him less than average, but still some – makes more sense than avoiding him.

Here are three guys to fade right now …

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

• Underdog Fantasy ADP: WR14
• Draft Sharks Best Ball Rank: WR22

First off, you should know that WRs get pushed way up the board in Underdog Fantasy drafts. So when you check out Best Ball ADP Market Index, you’ll see most of the position listed as poor values – especially early.

JSN stands out even within that context, though.

He certainly looks like an ascending player. But drafters are taking the third-year wideout closer to his total-points finish from last year (WR11) instead of his points-per-game level: WR24.

The latter should be especially emphasized in a format that relies on maximizing weekly scores – and even more so if you’re playing a playoff format such as Underdog’s.

Smith-Njigba faces the challenges of a QB switch, an OC switch, and losing DK Metcalf. That last one might seem like an upgrade for target availability. But the lack of Metcalf as an outside threat will make it easier to defend the middle of the field.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

• Underdog Fantasy ADP: 15th overall
• DS Best Ball Rank: 28th overall

You might notice that I switched from positional rankings with JSN to overall with Bowers, because that’s the aspect that finds his value misaligned.

There’s certainly nothing wrong with ranking Bowers tops among TEs after he set the NFL rookie receptions record. But taking him at ADP means grabbing your first TE when just eight WRs and six RBs have left the board.

You need to start two RBs and three WRs every week, plus one more of either to fill that flex spot. You only need to start one tight end.

So to be worth drafting this early, Bowers would need to not only lead TEs in scoring. He’d need to have the kind of dominant season that makes up for opportunity cost spent at other spots. Drafting Bowers this early also means you’ll need to do even better on your later RB and WR picks to make up the difference.

Could Bowers deliver a special season? Sure. And that’s why you should lean toward “fading” over “avoiding.” Find yourself in a draft where he slides further? Get a share.

But betting against the likelihood of a special season will always win at a higher rate than betting on such a rare occurrence.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

• Underdog Fantasy ADP: sixth overall (RB3)
• DS Best Ball Rank: 13th overall (RB6)

I’m betting you won’t like this one.

Passing over the guy who used a late-season tear to finish as the RB1 in total half-PPR points in just his second NFL season? Not a comfy move.

But Gibbs’ end-of-season surge came with David Montgomery out. After Week 14 (with a healthy Montgomery), Gibbs stood fourth among RBs in half-PPR points per game … but tied for just 20th in expected points per game.

Gibbs’ speed and first-round talent make him the type of player likely to regularly outperform “expected” points. But he benefited in 2024 from individual good TD fortune (13 rushing TDs vs. 9.3 expected) and good team TD fortune.

Those Lions scored 68 total TDs:

• 11 more than the 2023 Lions
• 16 more than the 2022 version

The combo of luck, Montgomery’s return, and a new OC all challenge Gibbs’ outlook. But you’re not finding any risk built into his Round 1 ADP.

Six Undervalued Players by Underdog Fantasy ADP (2025)

Now let’s jump to the other side and highlight some players to target more than average at market price …

Elite QBs

Why six undervalued players when we only had three in the other section? Because the first “player” on this side is actually four guys.

Check our Best Ball ADP Market Index, and you’ll find that the top five QBs are actually all going in value range. But the top four stand ahead of No. 5, Joe Burrow.

The whole group is getting a value boost from drafters pushing up WRs on whole and the top two TEs. And now’s an especially good time to target these QBs, because we know their roles and usage are set.

Check the all-position ADP, though, and you’ll find Jaguars rookie WR Travis Hunter going ahead of Daniels. Chargers rookie RB Omarion Hampton sits right behind Daniels – as of this writing – and six spots ahead of Hurts.

Maybe Hampton winds up clearly leading the L.A. backfield. Or maybe he splits closer to evenly with Najee Harris. Either way, Daniels and Hurts make for stronger bets right now – with no shortage of weekly upside.

Get Some Jalen Hurts

Hurts stands out as a value even within the value group by virtue of going last among a foursome that’s fairly tightly packed.

But we’ve also got four years of evidence with Hurts’ production. He ranked second, fourth, and fifth among QBs in points per game the past three years, climbing a spot in 2024 if you remove the Week 16 game he left early.

Since 2021, Hurts has more rushing TDs than any other player in the league – 12 more than the next QB (Josh Allen).

Bonus: Hurts’ reliance on rushing scoring means you don’t need to worry so much about stacking him with pass catchers.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

• Underdog Fantasy ADP: WR55
• DS Best Ball Rank: WR46

Josh Allen leads that list of QB value picks as the first QB off the board, and you’ll want to try to stack a pass-catcher or two if you take him. Coleman looks like the best combo of ADP value and scoring upside.

His rookie-year fantasy numbers don’t reveal much. But look beyond them and you’ll find these good signals Jared presented in our recent podcast included above:

• 7.7 yards after catch per reception, according to PFF, ranking fifth among 84 qualifying WRs
• first in Next Gen Stats’ yards after catch per reception over expected
• first among Bills in red-zone and end-zone targets

You could view the Josh Palmer signing (at $15 million per year) as negative for Coleman. Why pay Palmer that if you believe in the young guy?

I see it as a positive, though, because I don’t think Palmer’s all that good. Even if the Bills view the former Charger as a better player than Coleman right now, I think there’s room for the younger guy to emerge as soon as 2025.

Coleman’s Cheap Price Vaults His Ceiling

Of course, Coleman would be a worse bet if we needed to draft him in WR3 range. But we don’t. He’s going in mid-to-low WR5 range, despite already displaying:

• downfield ability (15.5-yard aDOT)
• run-after-catch ability
• red-zone attractiveness
• and that he does, in fact, play for the same team as Josh Allen.

That all makes the 2024 second-round pick an attractive addition to even non-Allen best ball rosters.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

• Underdog Fantasy ADP: RB16
• DS Best Ball Rank: RB10

If you’ve been with us for a couple of years or more, then you know that DS touting Mixon has become an annual rite. Honestly, though, it’s less about our specific affinity for the player and more about the market consistently undervaluing him.

You’ll often find the next year’s ADP overrating – or at least mimicking – the previous season’s fantasy finishes. Check out this trend for Mixon, though:

• 2022 finish: RB6 in points per game
• 2023 ADP: RB12
• 2023 finish: RB12
• 2024 ADP: RB16
• 2024 finish: RB10
• 2025 ADP: RB16

Mixon consistently gets drafted below his previous season’s finish. And if we remove the two games he left early from his 2024 game log, then he climbs to RB5 in scoring average.

So if you’re drafting him at ADP, then you’re getting him 11 spots later in positional ADP than how he scored as a first-year Texan.

Houston added only fourth-round rookie Woody Marks to the position. So the team sure seems to be planning another year of Mixon as clear backfield leader. And he should find himself in a better offense after the Texans finished just 26th in DVOA in 2024.

Bottom line: Get some Mixon.

The Draft Room Hack to Put You Over the Top

I mentioned up top that you’ll find the best version of our best ball rankings by syncing your draft. That’ll give you a Draft War Room connected with your draft on Underdog or FFPC, providing a live-draft sync as you go.

That will reveal value picks like the guys I just mentioned. And it’ll keep the poor values from climbing to the top of your pick suggestions.

That Draft War Room will also use the aforementioned Best Ball Factor to keep boosting volatile, high-upside players as you go. And when Upside Mode kicks in, you’ll find even more emphasis on the high-ceiling players who turn into season-long difference makers.

You can learn more about our top best ball draft strategies in the video below – or go ahead and create a Draft War Room for your draft now.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.