Keon Coleman Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Coleman underwhelmed as an early Round 2 rookie. Across 13 games, he tallied only 29 catches for 556 yards and 4 TDs.

Coleman finished at WR36 or better in only three games. He slotted WR50 or worse six times.

Overall, he ranked 67th in PPR points per game and expected points per game.

Usage & Role

Buffalo utilized Coleman as a primary outside WR. He played in the slot on only 10.8% of his passing-down snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

Coleman’s outside role led to deep-ball usage, with his average depth of target (aDOT) finishing at 15.5. That ranked fifth among 88 WRs with 50+ targets.

His volume was unspectacular, despite the Bills moving on from WR Stefon Diggs.

The rookie finished with a 15% target share. And that was boosted by a 31% share in Week 18 when Buffalo rested starters.

In the red zone, Coleman attracted a modest 13.8% target share, per Pro Football Reference. That figure ranked 49th among all WRs and tied for second on the Bills.

Efficiency Metrics

Among 84 WRs with 50+ targets, Coleman ranked 3rd in yards per catch, 42nd in yards per route run, and 81st in catch rate. He also struggled with a 14.7% drop rate and a 36.8% contested catch rate, per PFF.

Those numbers aren’t too surprising when you consider his deep ball role. But there’s one other stat that shows there’s still work to be done.

Coleman finished 83rd among 116 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score. He finished a much more promising 14th in their YAC Score. The rookie averaged a strong 7.7 yards after catch per reception.

Offensive Context

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected.

The mid-season arrival of Amari Cooper wasn’t ideal, but he didn’t become a target hog. From Week 7 on, Cooper topped five targets only once.

Of course, QB Josh Allen remained elite en route to his first MVP award.

Injury History

Coleman missed four games with a late-season wrist injury. He also got banged up with a Week 2 hip injury but didn’t miss time.

Here’s GM Brandon Beane in January (via NBC Sports) speaking about Coleman’s return from the wrist.

“I would say, probably was a little disappointed in the return from the injury. I did not see the same player down the stretch from a physicality, some of the things that he needs to use his size. Some of that is youth, some of that is, I’m not sure how many injuries he’s had to overcome in-season and come back. That takes a certain experience level, how to deal with an injury and how to return.”

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Buffalo added WRs Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore in free agency. Palmer will be counted on for a role after signing for 3 years and $18 million guaranteed, although he never truly broke out in Los Angeles.

Moore brings intriguing talent, but he was inefficient in a bad situation with Cleveland in 2024.

So Coleman’s main target competition should come from WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid. Both of those guys primarily operate in the short range, so look for Coleman to stick as a downfield target.

Supporting Cast

Josh Allen returns for his eighth season.

Last season, Allen set career-best marks in QBR and INT rate. He’s squarely in his prime at 29 years old.

Buffalo’s O-line also supports what should be a reliable offense. All five starters return for 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

We expect a similar offense approach to last year, both in terms of pass volume and style. In 2024, Allen ranked fourth among 38 qualifiers in deep pass rate (15.1%).

Production & Efficiency Trends

Our historical aging curves show that a WR’s biggest jump – regardless of draft capital – happens from age 21 to age 22.

At 22, Coleman certainly has room to improve in 2025. Also note: Coleman started for only two seasons at college (one at Michigan State, one at Florida State).