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What We Got Wrong in 2024

Why We Got These Guys Wrong Matters More

“The only real mistake is the one from which we learn nothing.”

Henry Ford said that in 1929 (at least according to the Internet). And it’s the most important thing to keep in mind as we look back at what we got wrong in the 2024 fantasy football season.

It’s OK to feel some regret over certain player and lineup decisions. I know I have some of those every year.

But if you stop there, you risk reacting the wrong way and compounding that mistake the following season. (I’m never drafting that guy again!)

The Method

To assess what we got wrong in 2024, we looked at your end-of-season rosters via our fantasy football league sync.

We checked how many synced redraft rosters each player appeared on vs. total synced rosters. And the resulting percentages indicated who appeared on DS-user rosters more or less often than what could be expected on average.

We’re highlighting the players chosen below not simply to lament getting them wrong – but to learn from what made us get them wrong in 2024 so that we might improve those areas for 2025.

What We’re Not Doing Here

Why not just compare preseason ranking with end-of-season ranking to find the biggest right/wrong calls?

Of course we’d love for our preseason projections to line up exactly with year-ending fantasy production. But that will never happen. There are way too many unknowns and variables to ever make that a realistic goal.

The biggest key to winning in fantasy football is finding those few guys that dramatically outperform expectations. Drafting Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr. at the level either guy finished 2024 would have been a mistake. 

Why? Because in each case, you could have gotten that player later (much later in Thomas’ case) and selected other high-value players en route to that pick.

Another key – to a lesser degree – is avoiding the biggest landmines. Why lesser? Because it’s easier to address such roster holes in season than it is to acquire a player such as Nabers after he has already started breaking out.

The Lessons

Below you’ll find the Who: Some of our most significant misses of 2024, sorted by position.

But what really matters here is the Why.

You’ll see a mix of players that we were too low or high on entering the season and guys the whole market misjudged.

That distinction doesn’t really matter at this point in the year.

There’s no meaningful consolation in “sure, we were wrong on this guy; but so was everyone else.” That’s not gonna help your 2025 rosters.

Determining why we got the Panthers’ backfield wrong, though might keep us from similarly misjudging the next version of that situation.

Where appropriate, I’ll highlight some examples from early 2025 best ball ADP that feature similar characteristics.

What We Got Wrong at QB

If you’re going to mess up a pick, this is the best position at which to do so – at least in 1-QB leagues.

In most cases, your league has more than enough QBs to go around. So a bust of a pick will be easier to replace and an underrated early producer is more likely to be available on waivers.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Drafters collectively got Stroud wrong last year. He sat fifth among QBs in consensus ADP. And Stroud sat on more than the expected share of even DS-user rosters by the end of the season.

We did OK vs. industry standards, projecting Stroud in the bottom half of QB1 territory. His year-end rostered rate might have reflected a large number of teams adding him off waivers after he got dropped.

But anywhere in QB1 territory obviously wound up incorrect for a guy who wound up 30th in fantasy points per game among multi-game starters.

The Lesson

No one had Stroud falling apart statistically in Year 2. But I thought he looked like a pretty clear avoid at ADP. There was simply no reason to chase him in the top half of QB1 territory with similarly styled players such as Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott going a couple to several rounds later.

Jared and I talked about just that in our “Rankings Revealed” podcast at the beginning of August.

Any QB you’re targeting among the position’s top 6 should have the upside to lead the whole position in fantasy scoring. And you should pass on pretty much any guy in that range who doesn’t deliver rushing production.

There are simply too many QBs at this point who can do both – and later options who score fantasy points the way Stroud does.

Looking Ahead

I’m passing on Lions QB Jared Goff at his early Underdog Fantasy ADP of QB9.

Like Stroud, Goff offers nothing on the ground and doesn’t sport upside much beyond that draft position.

That means more risk than reward potential.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Here’s another guy “we all” got wrong in 2024. But that doesn’t excuse the mistake.

The misstep on Richardson was kinda the opposite of that with Stroud. Drafting the Houston QB early meant betting on a guy who played like a stud as a rookie. That’s not generally a bad idea.

In Richardson’s case, we all knew he delivered just a small sample in a four-game rookie season. But chasing the rushing upside seemed worthwhile. If he hit, we might get the next Cam Newton.

He didn’t, of course. And instead we got a guy benched mid-season for Joe Flacco.

The Lesson

I’m classifying this one as more of an OK mistake to make.

We haven’t seen many examples like Richardson – perhaps not any. He:

• Arrived with little college experience
• Got drafted top-5
• Sported an unmatched size-athleticism combo

The only problem was taking a chance on him too early. And that’s the takeaway here.

Richardson still presents intriguing fantasy upside. Even over his final five games of a bad 2024, he finished:

• QB2
• QB21
• QB11
• QB17
• QB13

I’d guess at least part of the reason he wound up on a relatively high share of season-ending rosters (seventh-highest among QBs in our sample) is because he got picked up off waivers. I know I dropped him at one point from the only lineup-setting team to which I drafted him.

Looking Ahead

I don’t see a similar player to be wary of in 2025 ADP. And as I mentioned, there’s still upside to Richardson – even if only because of the rushing.

So my tip: Don’t completely ignore Richardson just because he disappointed so hard in 2024.

He sits just 21st among QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP at the moment. That flips his risk-reward calculation vs. last year. (And Josh Downs sits highest among Colts WRs at just WR47.)

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield finished the year rostered on a lower-than-expected share of DS-user rosters. He’s basically the opposite case from Stroud.

Mayfield’s shocking fantasy success in 2024 came primarily from a 7.2% TD rate that trailed only Lamar Jackson’s (8.6%). That topped Mayfield’s previous high by 1.6 percentage points (from all the way back in his rookie season). And he added career highs in:

• yards per attempt
• completion rate
• adjusted yards per attempt (accounts for TDs and INTs)
• passing success rate
• passer rating
• QBR
• and other stats

It would have been foolish to project a career-best season across categories and anything close to 41 TD passes. But we should have given Mayfield more attention as a later-round guy with upside.

The Lesson

Mayfield performed and produced much better in 2023 – his first year with the Bucs – than he had maybe any other year to date.

He entered 2024 with a still-good Mike Evans and healthier version of Chris Godwin (who spent nearly all of 2023 less than a year removed from his late 2022 ACL tear).

Mayfield finished 2023 as the No. 10 QB in fantasy points, though just QB20 in points per game. He finished six weeks inside fantasy’s top 12; just two inside the top 6. And then OC Dave Canales left for the Carolina job. But the Bucs gave the QB $100 million on a three-year deal.

We all decided to embrace the “meh” instead of considering that there might be further upside.

We’ll keep that in mind as we set the ceiling projections for this year’s QBs.

Looking Ahead

There are two takeaways here: First, be careful about chasing the guy you “missed” last year as he climbs this year’s ADP board.

Mayfield’s currently going QB8. I’ll bet he finishes lower than that. QBs just don’t repeat seasons of 7.0+% TD rates – unless they’re named Aaron Rodgers. (And even he has gone back-to-back just twice in 16 starting season.)

Mayfield pretty easily carries more downside risk than upside from that position – especially with Godwin coming off another injury and hitting free agency. He’s an easy pass at cost.

A 2025 Target

On the positive side, Dak Prescott looks like a 2025 candidate to outperform expectations from QB2 range.

He should be even easier to bet on than Mayfield, because we’ve seen more fantasy production.

Prescott finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points per game in 2023. And he posted even better scoring averages in 2021, 2020, and 2019. I highlighted him in our first fantasy football mock draft of this year.

Prescott’s sitting QB18 in early best ball ADP.

What We Got Wrong at RB

A couple of uncertain backfields entering the season wound up giving us trouble during the year and limiting the help from one breakthrough RB.

Jonathon Brooks and Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

I’m pairing these teammates together because they both count as misses and can work together in teaching us how to improve going forward.

Carolina clearly loved Brooks’ talent, drafting him early in Round 2 last April, nearly a round ahead of the class’ next RB – despite the ACL tear that ended his final college season prematurely.

Brooks barely played in 2024, re-tore that ACL, and yet still wound up on DS-user rosters at a higher-than-expected rate to end the year. 

That points to plenty of fantasy managers lagging a bit in late-season roster management (by not dumping Brooks) – but also too high a projection for Brooks on our part.

Hubbard Breaks Out

Brooks’ lack of readiness helped propel his teammate to finished 13th among RBs in PPR points per game.

Hubbard ranked eighth in the league in carries per game and boosted his efficiency basically across categories. He finished seven of 15 weeks among the top 12 PPR backs.

Of course, being too high on Brooks almost necessarily meant also being too low on Hubbard.

The Lesson

If a rookie hits the league off a major injury, be careful. And increase that caution the closer he gets to the season without returning to full work. You can bet that one will stick with us.

Of course, we can also modify that to apply to rookies simply heading into the season with uncertain roles and perhaps lacking camp buzz.

It’s not that we should avoid any such players. (Justin Jefferson opened his rookie year behind Bisi Johnson.) Just factor in the risk.

In this case, factoring in more risk on Brooks would have not only meant lowering him down the ranks, but also pushing Hubbard higher.

Looking Ahead

It’s important to remember that Hubbard was not an exciting player heading into 2024. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 6.0 per catch in 2023. And he sat no better than mid-pack among qualifiers in rushing-efficiency metrics.

But we all still focus a bit too much at times on which RBs are “good” and not enough on which face strong opportunity upside.

It’s a little early to dig too deep into comparable backfield situations for 2025, especially with an attractive rookie class at the position still two months away from claiming teams.

But you can already find RBs with plenty of opportunity upside vs. their early ADP (e.g. Najee Harris).

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Williams ended the year with the 10th-highest rostered rate among RBs for DS users. That certainly didn’t win any fantasy championships. The final three weeks of most fantasy league seasons found Williams ranking:

• RB48
• RB27
• RB64

For the year, he checked in RB30 in total PPR points but just RB40 in points per game.

The Lesson

Williams was an OK preseason bet from an ADP in the RB25-30 range. The real issue came if you believed in him too much and either drafted him a lot or chased him up draft boards.

The lack of clarity in Denver’s backfield entering the season presented opportunity … but also risk.

We hoped to see Williams get back to pre-injury form and lead the group. But we should have approached him a bit more cautiously.

Don’t Ignore Reality

Williams entered the league as an early second-round pick (35th overall) who seemed to carry intriguing upside. But his rookie season found him splitting work evenly with 28-year-old Melvin Gordon – and not outperforming the vet.

Then he went down in Game 4 of his sophomore campaign … which found him still splitting work with Gordon to open the year.

So in reality, a return to “pre-injury form” would have included (and did include) a work-sharing RB.

Looking Ahead

I could sort through RB3 territory for guys you should limit exposure to, but that’s not super-useful in February.

Instead, I think you can apply the lesson above to … Jahmyr Gibbs.

Obviously it’s not a direct comparison. But Gibbs sits third in Underdog Fantasy ADP at the moment. Understandable, given that he finished second among RBs in half-PPR points per game.

But Gibbs’ ADP ignores that he tied for just 20th at the position in expected half-PPR points per game before David Montgomery went down in Week 15. Montgomery ranked 15th in that category.

We don’t know exactly how the offense will deploy its RBs after losing OC Ben Johnson. But don’t ignore the risk on Gibbs as you draft.

What We Got Wrong at WR

The first two focal points here played for the same team in 2024. But I’m separating them to highlight the different lessons.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

No WR appeared on a larger share of DS-user rosters at the end of the season than Waddle did.

If you got lucky, you might have squeezed some late-season help out of him. Waddle scored as the WR3 in PPR for Week 12 and then WR17 in Week 14 before getting hurt the following game.

But only one other week all season found him higher than WR39 (Week 1: WR16). That’s pretty crappy for a guy you likely had to draft in mid-WR2 range.

What Happened?

Waddle didn’t just disappoint in 2024. He tumbled to a degree that probably wasn’t foreseeable, and there were several culprits …

The Lesson

Did we ignore risk factors with Waddle? I don’t really think so.

Sure, we knew Waddle was at best the No. 2 WR behind Tyreek Hill. And we knew he faced the potential challenges of De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith taking on more targets than their roles did the previous season.

But a 26-year-old WR entering his fourth year after finishing 14th, 14th, and 20th in PPR points per game sure seems like the type of guy you should bet on.

Looking Ahead

We’ll probably factor specific surroundings more into ceiling and floor projections for a young talent in a similar No. 2 role going forward.

But I think the takeaway here is not that you should avoid a profile such as Waddle’s. Do so in general, and you’ll miss the young guy who overtakes his older corps mate.

DeVonta Smith didn’t overtake A.J. Brown last year. But he did give the kind of payoff (WR17 in PPR points per game) that would have been fine for Waddle. And he went in the same ADP range with similar risk factors.

Just don’t over-expose yourself to such a player. Spread your best ball shares around, and draft some insurance at the position in lineup-setting formats.

2025 Comp?

Beware of drafting too much Xavier Worthy.

Like Waddle, he’s a talented, young, first-round NFL Draft pick in an exciting offense. Worthy racked up 19.6+ PPR points in five of his final six games in 2024, including the final two playoff contests.

But like Waddle, he faces target-share uncertainty in 2025 and currently sits WR20 in best ball ADP.

It’s OK to mix in some Worthy to your drafting. Just beware of taking him too much and/or chasing him up the ADP board.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Hill probably let fantasy drafters down to a greater degree than Waddle, considering that you needed to draft him in Round 1.

Hill finished just 33rd among WRs in PPR points per game and produced just four WR1 weeks all season.

He, of course, faced the same target-challenge and QB-injury issues as Waddle. And just like his younger corps mate, Hill forced us to overlook the sheer luck factor.

The Lesson

Miami ranked third and second in yards per play in HC Mike McDaniel’s first two seasons. And Hill feasted as the No. 1 WR, climbing from 29.1% target share in 2022 to 31.7% in 2023.

It’s OK to get excited about both factors. But it’s also important to consider the fragility.

If we liked Waddle as much as we did, we should have considered the possibility that the younger guy might steal some target share from Hill. That didn’t happen, of course, but the consideration could have at least opened the door to weighing other risk factors.

What if De’Von Achane’s growing role and Jonnu Smith’s (expensive) arrival siphoned some targets? What if the offense simply fell off some from the lofty efficiency of the previous two years? And what if the QB with the scary concussion history suffered another?

I’m not saying we should have projected Hill as a WR3. But every little piece of the profile matters when you’re analyzing a first-round pick.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

Here’s one I got boldly wrong in my best ball drafting. Why? I ignored my own advice from our Best Ball Strategy article.

Inside the Advanced Draft Techniques section, under the “Scoring a Late-Round ‘Lottery’ Winner” header, I (apparently) said to Target Rookie WRs.

And then I ignored it with McConkey, despite his ADP in low-WR4 range.

Many of you seemed to do so as well. McConkey unfortunately finished the year on just 5.6% of synced DS-user rosters.

What Went Wrong?

We had McConkey projected even below his low-risk ADP. Why? 

1. The Georgia product entered the league with an iffy dynasty profile, thanks to just-OK numbers and injury struggles.
2. He landed on a team that had just hired a run-heavy HC (Jim Harbaugh) and run-heavy OC (Greg Roman). And the Chargers dumping both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen only seemed to reinforce that run-heavy expectation.

But … duh. It also created obvious opportunity upside. And we certainly like Justin Herbert.

So chalk the malfunction up to following the projections too closely and not properly hoisting the potential ceiling.

The Lesson

McConkey really got propelled by the Chargers leaning much heavier toward the pass over the second half of last season.

We had no reason to project that. But we also had little reason to believe in huge upside for Quentin Johnston or Josh Palmer (and didn’t).

So even if we – and I – remained skeptical that McConkey would pan out, we should have allowed more room for the possibility that he would.

Looking Ahead

I think it’s premature to tie any of the incoming rookies in here. We’ll see about their draft positions and landing spots. But I think the McConkey lesson could apply to a couple of his classmates.

Ricky Pearsall (WR46) and Keon Coleman (WR55) are each going in a similar range to McConkey’s 2024 position – or even lower.

Pearsall now should open a season healthy in an offense that:

• might move on from Deebo Samuel
• has Brandon Aiyuk coming off an ACL tear
• will continue to find out just what Jauan Jennings is

He might make little impact in a pass offense that spreads the ball around too much. Or maybe the guy San Francisco grabbed in Round 1 last year carves out a larger-than-expected 2025 role.

Coleman similarly didn’t do much in his debut season. But he’s now sitting in mid-WR5 territory in an offense that saw only Khalil Shakir exceed 75 targets last year – and no one top 100 targets.

Coleman’s range of 2025 outcomes pretty easily includes becoming Josh Allen’s most productive pass-catcher. That upside’s well worth the current cost.

What We Got Wrong at Tight End

Fixing your missteps at tight end generally isn’t quite as easy as it is at QB. But you’ll similarly find in-season surprises every year (such as Jonnu Smith and Zach Ertz this year).

We’ll actually hit on Smith in a minute. But first comes a disappointment …

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid finished the year as the fifth-most rostered TE on synced DS teams.

Perhaps that doesn’t necessarily align with how often he was drafted. A three-game midseason injury – wrapped around a Week 12 bye – got Kincaid dropped in plenty of leagues, and that would have made him a fine late-season pickup.

But holding the second-year TE didn’t help you at any point in the season.

Drafters took Kincaid fifth among TEs on average, and he finished just 23rd in PPR points per game.This came despite Kincaid finishing second on the team in targets – even with the four missed games.

The Lesson

This one’s a bit more specific to the position – and the player.

First, the best way to draft TEs tends to be targeting an elite guy or waiting for upside options outside the top 12. There just doesn’t tend to be much value in drafting a lower-end TE1 type, when you factor in the opportunity cost of passing on other positions in that range of your draft.

If you drafted Kincaid last summer, then you obviously hoped he had that elite upside. Through two seasons now, he has yet to display that.

We’ll dig further into Kincaid as we shift to more 2025-centered content. But for now, the short version of the lessons here are:

1. Generally pass on limited TE1 types.
2. Don’t get overly excited about Kincaid.

Looking Ahead

Fortunately – if you want to like Kincaid, or even just draft Josh Allen pieces – the Bills TE sits just outside the top 12 in early ADP. So you can feel free to draft him.

I’d recommend grabbing two such “outside the top 12” types where it makes sense, and then either rolling with the one who works out or keeping them paired.

As for a 2025 version of Kincaid, I’m looking at T.J. Hockenson.

Be Wary of Hockenson?

My immediate take on Hockenson to open early draft season was that he’s a solid option among the top 6 at the position in ADP. But I’m now leaning away from him a bit more at cost.

Yes, Hockenson tied Travis Kelce for the position lead in PPR points per game in 2023. But he got a large boost from Justin Jefferson missing seven games. 

Hockenson’s scoring average in seven games shared with Jefferson that year would have ranked just sixth at the position. And now he also must contend with WR Jordan Addison entering Year 3 – as well as QB uncertainty.

Hockenson’s a short-range worker who needs target volume to deliver value. He presents a decent floor for TE-premium formats such as FFPC. But the upside is limited for best ball rosters.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

Let’s close this out with another Dolphin … but this time a guy we were too low on.

Smith didn’t get drafted in the average lineup-setting league, based on his TE24 ADP. But he finished fifth at the position in PPR points per game.

Honestly, this one didn’t make sense.

Mike McDaniel’s offense had been unfriendly to TE production. And although they snagged Smith in free agency off a surprisingly productive year in Atlanta, Miami paid him a fairly modest $8.4 million over two years. That was less than the annual average of the contracts for (among others):

• Will Dissly
• Mo Alie-Cox
• Colby Parkinson
• Josh Oliver

That all makes the lesson here a little tricky.

The Lesson

Let’s break this one down into separate parts and be careful not to misread it …

1. If we like the Dolphins offense, consider all the parts.

I’ve already established that we liked Miami’s offense – and for good reason. It ranked among the league’s most efficient in each of McDaniel’s first two seasons. And he came from Kyle Shanahan’s system, which perennially delivers efficiency.

It’s easy to say that if we liked Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, then there aren’t enough touches for everyone.

And if Smith were going, like, TE12 in ADP, that would have been a good argument.

But if that’s your reason for ignoring a guy Miami signed as a free agent who’s going 24th among TEs, then you’re just being arrogant.

We know we won’t get everything right. So if you like the offense, then you should like the new, imported TE at least better than his generally undrafted ADP.

All we had to do was add him at the end of a draft, and it’s all upside.

2. Even if you didn’t draft him, treat early success as a signal.

As I mentioned, Smith didn’t get drafted in most redraft leagues. And then he caught one pass on two targets in the opener. So he was available in most places for Week 2.

Smith posted a 6-53 receiving line on 7 targets in that loss to the Bills. That’s a flashpoint where we could have picked him up.

Miami did lose QB Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion in that game. So caution made sense. And Smith caught just two and zero passes the next two weeks.

But then came a 5-62 receiving line at New England on 8 targets. Another flashpoint. And from the following game on, he averaged 6.2 receptions, 62 yards, and 0.7 TDs per game.

He was TE5 in expected PPR points per game from Week 7 on – and TE3 in actual points per game.

3. Don’t overrate what a team/coach has done in the past.

“Mike McDaniel’s offense isn’t kind to TEs” definitely played a role in drafters generally underrating Smith heading into 2024 – and our lack of attention for him.

You can find examples every year, though, of the drafting public assuming too much from what a coach or team has done in the past.

Generally, if there’s some indicator that the coach/team favor this player more than he/it has previously at the position, then take note. And consider boosting that guy in your draft rankings.

We’ll look more into 2025 candidates as we get further into draft season.

Don't Screw Up Your 2025 Drafts

The whole point of looking back at what we got wrong in 2024 is to make sure we avoid the same mistakes going forward.

We've addressed some other common mistakes in this article on the best way to draft fantasy football.

Check it out and sharpen your drafting skills ... while your league mates are months away from paying attention.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.