Demarcus Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Robinson closed last season strongly as the Rams’ No. 3 WR, scoring at a low-end WR3 pace over his final seven games. He’s the favorite for that No. 3 job again in 2024.

That makes Robinson a nice depth piece for best-ball teams and a potential bye-week filler in deeper redraft leagues.

An injury to Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp could make Robinson a weekly fantasy starter.

What We Learned Last Year

• Robinson caught 0 passes over the first eight games of last season and just three over the first 10 games. He played a total of 33 offensive snaps over those 10 games.
• Robinson replaced Tutu Atwell as the Rams’ No. 3 WR starting in Week 12.
• In the Rams’ final seven meaningful games (excluding the regular-season finale and including the playoff loss to the Lions), Robinson averaged:
  • 6.0 targets (16.9% share)
  • 3.7 catches
  • 53.7 yards
  • 0.6 TDs
• Robinson averaged 12.8 PPR points across those seven games. That would have ranked 33rd among WRs for the season.
• He averaged 1.56 yards per route in those seven outings – 37th among 62 qualifying WRs over that span.
• Robinson ranked 20th among those 62 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, notably ahead of teammate Cooper Kupp (44th).
• He worked downfield often, averaging 14.3 yards per catch on a 12.3-yard average target depth.
• Robinson scored four times on 26 catches over those seven games – a likely unsustainable 15.4% TD rate.
  • But he registered 3.7 expected receiving TDs over that span.
  • Robinson led the Rams with eight end-zone targets in those seven games.

What to Expect in 2024

• Sixth-round rookie Jordan Whittington was the most noteworthy addition to the Rams’ WR room this offseason. Robinson heads to training camp as the clear favorite for the No. 3 job.
• Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp project to dominate targets as long as they’re healthy, but there’s room for Robinson.
• The Rams have consistently ranked near the top of the league in total WR PPR points under HC Sean McVay.
  • 2017 - 4th
  • 2018 - 4th
  • 2019 - 4th
  • 2020 - 12th
  • 2021 - 1st
  • 2022 - 16th
  • 2023 - 3rd
• The Rams’ No. 3 WR in terms of PPR points has ranked inside the top-65 in six of McVay’s seven seasons. That includes three top-51 finishes from the No. 3 WR.
• Robinson’s real upside comes in the event of a Nacua or Kupp injury.
  • Nacua played all 17 games last year.
  • But Kupp missed four games and most of a fifth. He’s now missed 23 games over his seven NFL seasons. Our Injury Predictor gives Kupp a 53.8% chance of injury and projects him for 1.4 missed games this year.