Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Mahomes just finished posting his fewest fantasy points in seven years as an NFL starter. That came a year after his second-fewest points per game.

He checked in just 11th among QBs in total points and points per game. That followed PPG finishes of:

• 10th in 2023
• 3rd in 2022
• 4th in 2021
• 2nd in 2020
• 6th in 2019
• 1st in 2018

Mahomes finished just five of 16 weeks among the top 12 fantasy QBs. Four of those found him seventh or higher, but two of those came in the final two weeks of most fantasy seasons – following consecutive finishes of QB20, QB17, and QB16.

So 1-QB leaguers probably weren’t starting Mahomes for those two contests – or shouldn’t have been – if they even made it that far.

Efficiency Metrics

Mahomes’ career low in passing yards came on a career-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt and career-low 10.0 yards per completion.

He also notched a career-low TD rate, falling just short of the previous career low he set in 2023.

Mahomes’ advanced metrics fell more in line with previous seasons. Though the past two seasons have produced the two shortest aDOTs of his career.

Offensive Context

The Chiefs tried to address a deteriorating WR corps ahead of last season, signing Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in Round 1.

But Brown hurt his shoulder before the start of the season and made it back for just scant use at the end of the year.

Worthy produced but was unable to convert his elite speed into big yardage. He averaged just 10.8 yards per catch despite a 9.2-yard aDOT. Blame a mix of short-range completions and long-range misses.

Rashee Rice’s highly anticipated second year ended with a knee injury in Week 4.

Travis Kelce remained healthy and central to the offense but posted a career-low 8.5 yards per catch in his age-35 season.

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

The Chiefs didn’t make a lot of offensive changes, but they didn’t need to.

They expect Rice to be all the way back from his knee injury. They re-signed Brown on another one-year deal. They still have JuJu Smith-Schuster around to take up space, Skyy Moore to carry his teammates’ pads, and fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals to provide some upside depth.

They did sign Jaylon Moore for $15 million a year to take over at LT after Mahomes took the highest sack rate of his career.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The staff and scheme remain the same as they’ve been for a while. Even OC Matt Nagy has been back since 2022, following a four-year stint as Bears HC.

Production & Efficiency

The speedy WR corps needs to stay healthy to rebound Mahomes’ efficiency and boost his fantasy upside.

Over four seasons as starter with Tyreek Hill around, Mahomes delivered the league’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (8.1). Since Hill left ahead of 2022, he’s down to 20th (7.3).

Mahomes’ TDs should be due for some positive regression. His 49 pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line last year – according to Pro Football Reference – lined up with most of his previous seasons. Mahomes has attempted 46-50 throws in that range in five of his seven starting seasons.

Last year found him throwing three fewer TD passes from that range than his previous low.