Rashee Rice Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Hope You Didn’t Blink

If you drafted Rice last season, then you got exactly what you were hoping to get … for three weeks.

Through three games, only Malik Nabers generated more fantasy points. Rice drew 31.5% of Chiefs targets and 35.0% of the team’s air yards over that span – even while running a route on just 76.9% of dropbacks (51st among WRs).

He was averaging 8 receptions, 96.0 yards, and 0.67 TDs per contest. But then a Week 4 LCL tear in his right knee ended the season.

Usage Followed Late-2023 Trend

Rice’s enhanced usage matched the rise of his rookie season. The second-round pick averaged just 4.6 targets, 3.6 catches, and 42.0 yards across his first 10 games, playing 46.9% of the offensive snaps.

From Week 12 on, those numbers jumped to:

• 77.6% playing time
• 9.3 targets per game
• 7.2 receptions
• 86.3 yards

And the four-game playoff run went similarly:

• 80.3% playing time
• 8.3 targets
• 6.5 receptions
• 65.5 yards

From Week 12 through the playoffs, Rice beat Travis Kelce in:

• Targets per game: 8.7 to 7.7
• Receptions per game: 6.9 to 6.1
• Yards per game: 78.0 to 69.8
• TDs: 4 to 3
• First downs: 38 to 36
• Even drop rate: 2.3% to 9.1%

2025 Expectations

Projected Role

The first two questions with Rice are his health and his off-field situation.

Doctors cleared the 25-year-old to start running routes in early April. We’ll obviously have to watch him through the summer to make sure the knee is good, but Rice is expected to be ready.

Similarly, his legal issues remain a developing story. But it’s developing so slowly that Rice now seems unlikely to face league discipline for it during the 2025 season.

We’ll certainly keep watching that situation as well. But the market has already shifted to treating Rice as likely to avoid suspension.

Supporting Cast

Assuming the health and off-field stuff are good, Rice will face more challengers for targets than he has previously.

He and Marquise Brown have yet to share the field for an NFL game. Xavier Worthy took the field for all three of Rice’s healthy outings last year but totaled just 11 targets across those contests.

The rookie went from tallying six receptions over those three games to catching six or more passes in five of his final six games – including the playoffs.

The offense will undoubtedly benefit from having all three wideouts in place, but Rice could easily find his target share dinged by the added talent.

Differing Roles Favor Rice’s Volume

Perhaps the best mark working in Rice’s favor is his specific role.

The Chiefs like to move their WRs among positions more than most offenses. That has meant Rice running only about half his pass routes from the slot so far, even as the team’s most frequent choice for that spot. But the average target depths reveal something about the player styles involved here.

Rice carries a 5.0-yard aDOT for his young career, according to Pro Football Focus. Worthy posted a 9.2-yard aDOT for his rookie season, despite most of his catches coming via shorter throws. And Brown’s career aDOT stands at 12.5, across stints with three teams.

Running shorter routes and spending more time in the middle of the field should help Rice’s chances of maintaining his target lead – especially with slot-adjacent TE Travis Kelce winding down at age 36.