Drake London - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The stars are aligning for London to break out in Year 3.

Ditching the Arthur Smith offense for a modern offense that utilizes its talent is a welcome change. In addition, the massive QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins gives London the best chance to hit his WR1 ceiling.

His ADP as a WR1 reflects the pure potential London has. We are on board in our 2024 WR rankings, expecting London to make that same impact.

What We Learned Last Year

• London’s per-game stat lines were similar to his 2022 rookie season:
  • 6.3 targets (down from 6.9)
  • 4.1 receptions (down from 4.2)
  • 54.1 yards (up from 50.9)
  • 13.3 yards per catch (up from 12.0)
  • 0.1 TDs (down from 0.2)
• His per-game statistics decreased when Taylor Heinicke was playing over Desmond Ridder:
  • 6.25 targets
  • 3.75 receptions
  • 46.5 yards
  • 12.4 yards per catch
  • 0 TDs
• London ranked as the PPR WR41 in total fantasy points (166.3) and WR45 in points per game (6.3).
• He missed one game last year (Week 9) with a groin injury. It is the only missed game of his career.
• He had two top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
• London’s target share dipped from 29.3% in 2022 (sixth best among WRs) to 23.1% (27th best among WRs).
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, London ranked:
  • 25th in PFF’s receiving grade
  • 32nd in yards per route run (1.87)
  • 45th in average target depth (11.7)
• Among those same WRs, London was 90th in average separation yards (2.2), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• London will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
• Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• London enters his 3rd season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with London’s profile produces 94% of his peak value at age-23.