The Athletic's Jay Morrison writes that the Bengals cutting RB Joe Mixon "feels closer to a certainty than a mere possibility." The move would save Cincinnati $7.3 million against the 2023 salary cap. "The Bengals envisioned this scenario coming into play when they signed Mixon to a four-year, $48 million contract in 2020, and structured the deal so that they could get out of it two years early without much of a hit," Morrison adds. Mixon averaged just 58 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry last year. He ranked 47th among 51 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating and 27th in NFL Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt. Mixon was also accused of pointing a gun at a woman in downtown Cincinnati in January. We'll see if the Bengals send him packing before the start of free agency in mid-March. RB Samaje Perine is set to hit the open market then, leaving Chris Evans as Cincinnati's only other RB signed for 2023. Expect the Bengals to make a significant addition to the backfield -- via free agency or the draft -- if they do cut Mixon.
The Athletic's Josh Kendall expects Tyler Allgeier to operate as the Falcons' lead back in 2023. Allgeier somewhat quietly topped 1,000 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie last year, with 431 of his rushing yards coming over the final 4 games. He ranked 6th among 45 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus' rushing grades and 3rd in Elusive Rating. Allgeier totaled just 16 catches last year -- and a lack of pass-catching work could cap his fantasy ceiling this coming season. But he at least has a shot at RB2 value if he can garner 15 or so carries per game. We'll see what else Atlanta does with the RB group this offseason.
Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill suggested in a Wednesday appearance on The Dave Pasch Podcast that QB Kyler Murray could miss a big chunk of the 2023 season. "I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it's toward the beginning of the season, but I don't want to put any specific dates," Bidwill said. "There could be setbacks, the progress could slow. But he's a young man, it looks like he is a fast healer, things are going well. Let's hope that keeps going the way it is." Murray tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee on December 12 and had surgery on January 3. A standard 9-month timeline would have him back in early October -- but it sounds like the team is bracing for a potentially longer absence. It's an especially tough situation with Arizona installing a new offense under OC Drew Petzing. Murray should be considered just a QB2 in early best-ball drafts.
The Titans released WR Robert Woods, The Score's Jordan Schultz reports. It's no surprise considering Woods was set to count $14.6 million against the 2023 salary cap. 30 years old and coming off a torn ACL, Woods didn't appear to have much juice left this past season, averaging a career-low 9.9 yards per catch. He ranked 59th among 84 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' receiving grades. We'll see where Woods lands, but don't expect to find him high in the 2023 fantasy football rankings.
The Athletic's Bob Sturm writes that the consensus opinion from analysts and scouts is that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott "has very little left in his legs." Zeke isn't even 28 yet but has amassed well over 2,000 touches through 7 NFL seasons. He posted career lows this past year in yards per carry (3.8) and yards per catch (5.4), while ranking outside the top 30 RBs in Pro Football Focus' rushing and receiving grades. The Cowboys are reportedly hoping to get Elliott to agree to a pay cut to stick around for 2023. We'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks. Elliott is cheap in early best-ball drafts, with a current Underdog ADP of RB37. But he's not an exciting pick even at that price point.
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman underwent groin surgery on February 21, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. Hardman suffered this injury in Week 9 in early November, finally returned for the AFC Championship in late January but played just 15 snaps and then missed the Super Bowl. Assuming this is a standard sports-hernia type surgery, Hardman should be ready in plenty of time for training camp. He's set to hit free agency in March for the first time.
The Colts have named Jim Bob Cooter their new OC. He turned in 3 generally underwhelming seasons as Lions OC from 2016-2018, with finishes of 21st, 13th and 24th in total yards. Cooter then bounced to Jets RBs coach to Eagles "consultant" to Jaguars passing-game coordinator this past year, playing a part in QB Trevor Lawrence's breakout season. Cooter will work under offensive-minded HC Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. Steichen is expected to call plays, according to The Athletic's Zak Keefer.
The Cardinals named Drew Petzing their new OC. The 35-year-old has spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland, with titles ranging from assistant WRs coach to TEs coach to QBs coach this past year. Petzing has no experience calling plays at any level. It's a rather bold hire by new Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon. We'll see what we can learn about Petzing over the next 6+ months.
The Panthers named Thomas Brown their new OC. The 36-year-old spent the past 3 seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, serving as RBs coach and then TEs coach. He bounced around the college ranks prior to that, with his only OC experience coming at Miami from 2016 to 2018. Those offenses finished just 54th, 60th and then 105th in total yards per game. The first 2 were pass-centric attacks, while the 3rd shifted toward the run. Brown will be working under offensive-minded HC Frank Reich in Carolina. We'll see who ends up calling the plays. There's a good chance that Brown is working with a rookie QB in 2023. The Panthers hold the 9th overall pick of this spring's draft and only have QBs Matt Corral and Jacob Eason on the roster currently.
The Commanders are reportedly finalizing a deal to have Eric Bieniemy become their new OC. Bieniemy has served as the Chiefs OC under HC Andy Reid since 2018. The Chiefs have won 2 Super Bowls in that span with an offense that's finished no lower than top-6 in total offensive yards and scoring. Though Bieniemy has received many interview opportunities for head coaching positions over the last few years, none ever manifested to the point of an official job offer. Perhaps getting out from under the shadow of Reid and being primarily responsible for the Commanders' offense will aid in bolstering Bieniemy's resume. He'll inherit a Commanders offense that ranked 20th in total offensive yards and 24th in scoring in 2022.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been indicted on battery charges stemming from his role in the assault that took place last February in Las Vegas. So the case is officially heading to court, with the 1st court date set for March 2, according to Pro Football Talk. "He intends to vigorously fight the allegations at trial as he was defending himself and others at the time of the incident," Kamara's lawyers said in a statement. We'll see how this case unfolds -- and how the NFL responds. Remember that the league does not need a legal conviction to suspend Kamara. And, considering there's video of the incident, it seems more likely than not that Kamara is suspended for part of the upcoming 2023 season. Draft accordingly.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Packers and RB Aaron Jones have agreed to a restructured contract, shifting most of his 2023 money to a signing bonus. That keeps Jones with the teams "instead of being released," in Schefter's words. That's what makes this deal significant. Of course, staying in Green Bay will likely find Jones playing with a new QB (Jordan Love). What will moving on from Aaron Rodgers mean for the offense and Jones' production? That's nearly impossible for anyone to know at this point. Rodgers has been the starter since 2008, long before Jones arrived. The 2023 Packers figure to lean on their backfield quite a bit, though. Even with Rodgers still around in 2022, the offense dipped to 18th in neutral pass rate (according to RBSDM.com) from 11th in 2021. The shift from Rodgers to Love, however, could ding Jones' target count (Love will likely run more) and the team's TD efficiency. Fortunately, early best-ball drafts are discounting the Packers RB. He sits 20th at the position in Underdog ADP, going in Round 6 on average. Go ahead and get some shares of him at that price.
The Giants have signed WR Isaiah Hodgins, who was headed for exclusive-rights free agency. Terms weren't immediately announced, but we don't expect big numbers to be involved. The sheer fact that the team re-signed Hodgins before it needed to, however, signals he's part of the 2023 plan as opposed to just a depth player. Hodgins arrived from the Bills in the middle of the 2022 season and closed out the year as a full-timer. He played 80%+ snap share in each of his final five regular-season games -- as well as the playoff win at Minnesota. He also tied for the team lead in TD receptions (4) despite playing just eight regular-season games. Hodgins is an intriguing later-round pick in early 2023 best-ball drafts.
The Bucs are hiring Dave Canales as their new OC. The 41-year-old has spent the past 13 seasons working under Pete Carroll, first at USC and then with Seattle. Canales most recently served as Seahawks QBs coach, helping QB Geno Smith to a career year. But Canales' only experience as an offensive coordinator came at Carson High School in California in 2004 and 2005. He's a total wild card as we start to project what this Bucs offense will look like in 2023. We're also, of course, still waiting to see what Tampa does at QB. Kyle Trask is the only QB currently on the roster.
The Cardinals named Jonathan Gannon their new HC. The 39-year-old has been in the NFL since 2007, working his way from Falcons defensive quality control coach to Eagles defensive coordinator for the past 2 seasons. Philadelphia finished 2nd in yards allowed and 8th in points allowed last year. We'll see how Gannon fills out the offensive side of his staff.
The Raiders officially released QB Derek Carr. Keeping him on the roster beyond 4 pm ET on Tuesday would have guaranteed Carr $40 million in 2023. Vegas was reportedly close to agreeing to a trade that would have sent Carr to New Orleans, but the QB opted to exercise his no-trade clause. He's now free to sign wherever he wants, with the Saints, Jets, Panthers and Titans considered his most likely suitors. Carr's efficiency and production sunk under HC Josh McDaniels last year -- and he ranked just 23rd among 31 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. He turns 32 in March. We'll keep you updated on the Carr Sweepstakes. Vegas, meanwhile, is left with "Chase Garbers" as the only QB on the active roster. They'll obviously be active in the QB market over the next few months.
The Ravens are hiring Todd Monken as their OC. Monken spent the past 3 seasons as Georgia's OC, helping the Bulldogs to National Championships in both 2021 and 2022. The offense improved each season, climbing from 41st to 26th and then to 5th in yards per game. Monken spent the 4 years before that Georgia stint as an NFL OC. The first 3 came with the Bucs, who climbed from 18th in total yards to 9th and then 3rd with QB Jameis Winston. Monken then headed to Cleveland, where his 2019 Browns struggled to a 22nd-place finish in total yards in QB Baker Mayfield's 2nd season. Each of Monken's final 3 NFL offenses ranked higher in pass attempts than rush attempts. All 4 were at least league-average in terms of Pass Rate Over Expected, with the 2017 Bucs finishing at +2% and the 2018 Bucs finishing at +5%. That makes this a fascinating hire considering the Ravens were a run-leaning offense under former OC Greg Roman. We'll keep an eye on Monken's exact plans for the 2023 Ravens.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook underwent surgery today to address a broken shoulder that he suffered back in 2019, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Cook has dealt with a plethora of shoulder issues throughout his football career: a labrum tear in 2014 at Florida State, a re-injury in college in 2016, the aforementioned 2019 injury, a dislocated shoulder and torn labrum in 2021 and another injury this past September. Cook's agency suggested in a statement that he'll be ready for the start of the 2023 season, but we'll look for more details on the procedure and Cook's exact timeline for return. He turns 28 in August.
The Texans are expected to hire Bobby Slowik as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Slowik will become the latest Kyle Shanahan disciple to take over an offense. The 35-year-old has spent the past 6 seasons under Shanahan in San Francisco, actually starting out as a defensive quality control coach before moving to the offensive side of the ball in 2019. He served as an offensive assistant for 2 seasons before being promoted to passing game specialist in 2021 and then passing game coordinator last year. Slowik also worked under HC Mike Shanahan in Washington from 2011 to 2013 and spent a few years in between NFL jobs as an analyst at Pro Football Focus. It appears to be a forward-thinking hire by the Texans, although Slowik doesn't have experience calling plays at any level. The Texans are fully expected to take a QB with the 2nd overall pick of this spring's draft.
Raiders QB Derek Carr will exercise the no-trade clause in his contract and is expected to be released, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The Raiders and Saints were seemingly close to agreeing to a trade that would send Carr to New Orleans, but he'll now have the chance to pick his new team. The Saints are still a strong candidate to sign Carr, but the Panthers, Jets and Titans are also possible landing spots. Stay tuned.
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