Falcons TE Kyle Pitts ranked just 22nd among TEs in PPR points per game last season. But the underlying numbers show a lot more upside. Pitts ranked second among all TEs in target share, trailing only Mark Andrews. He ranks 14th all-time among TEs in receiving yards through two seasons, despite tying for just 28th in receptions and 137th in games played. Poor QB play and a high run rate clearly hurt last season. Pitts fared worse in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per route, and passer rating on balls thrown his way vs. 2021. Atlanta ran at the second-highest rate for the season. But the neutral pass rate climbed from 32nd in the league with Marcus Mariota behind center to 24th in Desmond Ridder's starts. The 2021 Falcons ranked 14th in neutral pass rate, in HC Arthur Smith's first season and with QB Matt Ryan. We're not betting on a return to that level, especially after the first-round selection of RB Bijan Robinson. But you should bet on the Falcons passing at least a little more in 2023. And the quality of passing should improve at least a little. Combine that with the talent Pitts has already displayed and an ADP lower than last year's, and you have a redraft bet with modest risk and plenty of upside. See where Pitts stands in our 2023 TE rankings.
It looks like the market for free agent RB Dalvin Cook is heating up. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins have made a formal contract offer to the veteran back. Jackson went on to say that “there's mutual interest" and that Cook "has called Miami a 'perfect fit'.” NFL Network's Tom Pelissero also recently spoke about Cook on The Rich Eisen Show, stating that the veteran has received "multiple offers" from various teams, so the Fins will not be alone in their pursuit. Cook showed some signs of decline last season, averaging his fewest rushing yards per game (69.0) since 2017 and losing significant target share. Wherever he ends up, we're probably not talking about a slam-dunk RB1 in fantasy anymore. But he should have a role worthy of mid-round draft consideration. Cook landing in Miami would throw an already busy backfield -- Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, and 2023 rookie De'Von Achane -- into an absolute frenzy. Keep an eye out for further updates.
Per ESPN's Turron Davenport, Titans WR Treylon Burks is "playing at a different speed from his rookie season" in OTAs and minicamps this offseason. Davenport also notes that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is highly comfortable throwing to the 2022 first-round pick "whether he is wide open or in tight coverage," which is certainly exciting to hear for fantasy managers. Burks' rookie season was marred by injury (turf toe in Week 4, concussion in Week 12, six total missed games), though he closed 2022 on a high note. Burks drew 6+ targets in five of his final six healthy games, catching 4+ balls in four of those five games while averaging 13.7 yards per catch over that entire span. Assuming better health, he could be a sneaky PPR value pick in drafts this year. We feel very good about Burks' chances to lead the Titans' offense in targets and be a high-volume receiver without a lot of other talent around him. See where Burks comes out in our current WR rankings.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero suggested in a recent interview on The Rich Eisen Show that Raiders RB Josh Jacobs could hold out into the regular season. "If there’s not a long-term deal I don’t anticipate Jacobs being there at the start of training camp and I don’t know that he shows up Week 1," Pelissero said. Jacobs was slapped with the franchise tag earlier this offseason, which would pay him $10.1 million this year. Skipping training camp wouldn't cost him any money, but he'd forfeit one-seventeenth of that salary for each game he misses. Jacobs and the Raiders have until July 17 to agree to a long-term deal. Until we have a resolution to this situation, Jacobs carries elevated risk in fantasy drafts. RB Zamir White would be the favorite to take over early-down work if Jacobs holds out into the regular season. RB Ameer Abdullah is still around to handle passing downs.
Colts WR Michael Pittman got plenty of target and reception volume last season. He finished 16th among WRs in target share and 10th in the league in receptions. But his yardage efficiency tumbled. Pittman's yards per catch fell from 12.3 in 2021 to 9.3, with poor QB play a (the?) primary culprit. His average depth of target fell by more than 2 yards, with QBs Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles all ranking 28th or worse in Pro Football Focus passing grade. Pittman also produced his lowest mark yet, though, in yards after catch per reception. According to PFF, he tied for just 53rd in yards per route and ranked 44th in receiving grade, among 97 WRs with 40+ targets. Pittman did, at least, rank a decent 26th in targets per route, matching his 2021 ranking. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson should be good for Pittman's aDOT. But we'd bet on the WR coming down from last year's 70.2% catch rate. Overall, it's tough to bet on big upside for Pittman from his WR3-level ADP. Read more about the outlook for Indy's lead wideout and see where he lands in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
The Cardinals "intend on using a lot of two-TE sets this season," according to Jess Root of Cards Wire. That would mean significant time together on the field for second-year TE Trey McBride and TE Zach Ertz, once the vet's ready following his ACL recovery. But it would also potentially challenge the playing time for Arizona WRs not named Marquise Brown. The Cardinals already tied for ninth in the league in most "12 personnel" snaps (two TEs) last season. So we might not actually see an escalation this year. But we'll be watching the camp and preseason tendencies for the fantasy outlooks on WRs Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson. McBride and Ertz are both going late enough in best ball drafts to carry some upside, though we're not specifically targeting either player. See where all these Cardinals land in our PPR rankings.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce will turn 34 in October but has shown no signs of decline. He just registered his second-best Pro Football Focus receiving grade and fourth-most yards per route run of his career last season. Those marks ranked first and second, respectively, among 32 qualifying TEs. From a fantasy perspective, Kelce easily led all TEs in PPR, half-PPR, and non-PPR points. He's now finished as a top-2 fantasy TE in seven straight seasons, including six No. 1 finishes. Just how high should Kelce go in 2023 fantasy drafts? Check out where he sits in the overall rankings.
Saints TE Foster Moreau was a "frequent target" of QB Derek Carr in OTAs and minicamp, according to ESPN's Katherine Terrell, who named Moreau the Saints' surprise offseason standout. Moreau has worked with the first- and second-team offenses and "could compete with Juwan Johnson for snaps as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 tight end," Terrell writes. We're currently projecting Johnson to lead Saints TEs in fantasy points but will keep a close eye on the situation throughout the summer. If nothing else, the gap between Johnson and Moreau shouldn't be as big as it's been in recent fantasy drafts. Johnson is TE17 in FFPC ADP, while Moreau is TE41.
ESPN's Rob Demovsky named Packers WR Romeo Doubs the team's surprise offseason standout. "Doubs has seemingly become Jordan Love's go-to guy," Demovsky writes. "Whether it's in scripted team periods or move-the-ball drills like the two-minute simulation, Doubs has been targeted time and again." It's worth remembering that Doubs was awesome last preseason, with most of his production coming from Love. And while his rookie season wasn't as impressive as teammate Christian Watson's, Doubs got off to a solid start before a midseason high-ankle sprain got in the way. With rookie Jayden Reed joining Doubs and Watson, this young Packers WR corps will be worth monitoring closely in training camp and preseason.
ESPN's Josh Weinfuss named WR Michael Wilson the Cardinals' surprise offseason standout. "The rookie third-rounder has impressed his coaches and teammates with his route running and talent," Weinfuss writes. Wilson got plenty of first-team reps this spring and "could be a factor in Arizona's offense from Day 1 of the season," Weinfuss adds. The release of WR DeAndre Hopkins opens up tons of opportunity in Arizona's passing game. And, more specifically, a need for a big-bodied outside receiver. The 6'1, 213-pound Wilson fits the bill. He qualifies as an intriguing end-of-draft flier for now. We'll keep a close eye on his progress when training camp opens next month.
ESPN’s Adam Teicher believes rookie RB Deneric Prince could push for snaps “if he shows an aptitude for pass protection” in training camp. Prince, a rookie UDFA, caught only 17 balls across 3 seasons at Tulsa. Yet his hands reportedly stood out in spring practices. It’s hard to see the 23-year-old taking receiving work away from Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but we’ll keep a close eye on this position group next month. Note: Isiah Pacheco is expected to miss part of training camp following offseason surgeries.
Lions QB Hendon Hooker is “expected” to start training camp on the non-football injury list, per Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press. Birkett expects a midseason return, which would put the 25-year-old ~11.5 months out from his November ACL tear. Sitting behind Jared Goff, our dynasty QB rankings show Hooker's just a stash.
Poor QB play limited Commanders WR Jahan Dotson in 2022. Still, he flashed true Round 1 talent with 14.9 yards per catch and 7 scores. He did so despite missing five games with an early-season hamstring injury. Year two brings a QB change with Sam Howell likely to start. Washington will also break in new OC Eric Bieniemy. “Exciting. … A lot of down-the-field plays," Dotson said of Bieniemy’s offense, per The Athletic. “We’re going to stretch the field, make the defense really work.” Dotson should see plenty of downfield opportunities alongside Howell, who wasn’t shy about throwing deep at North Carolina. The 23-year-old sits just outside WR3 range in our 2023 WR rankings.
The Chiefs "hope" RB Isiah Pacheco will be ready to return by the "middle" of training camp, according to The Athletic's Nate Taylor. Pacheco continues to rehab from offseason surgeries to repair a torn labrum and broken bone in his hand. He missed all of spring workouts, and it sounds like he won't be cleared to return until some time in August. His health will be worth watching closely next month. Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and undrafted rookie Deneric Prince are the next men up in Kansas City's backfield.
Patriots WR JuJu Smith-Schuster missed all of spring practices because of the knee injury he suffered in last year's AFC Championship Game, according to The Athletic's Chad Graff. Smith-Schuster was able to play in the Super Bowl, so it's surprising that this is still an issue four months later. The missed reps aren't ideal as JuJu works to settle into a new offense. We'll see if he's ready to go for the start of training camp next month.
The first half of Chargers WR Keenan Allen's 2022 season was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he was a fantasy football stud over the second half. Allen led all WRs with 60 catches over his final eight games and ranked second to only Justin Jefferson with 83 targets. Allen scored the third most PPR points at his position over those eight contests. He's now finished as a top-13 WR in PPR points per game in six straight seasons and has shown no signs of decline, ranking 12th among 80 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run last year. Even with the addition of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston, Allen looks like a rock-solid WR2 pick in fantasy football drafts. See exactly where he lands in our WR Rankings.
Texans RB Dameon Pierce became a workhorse as a 2022 rookie, taking 74.3% of the team's rushing attempts over his 13 games. For the year, he ranked 10th among all RBs in opportunity share (carries plus targets). Pierce's rushing-efficiency stats provided mixed messages. He tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt and ranked second in elusive rating, according to Pro Football Focus. But Pierce finished just 37th in Football Outsiders' rushing DYAR and DVOA, among 42 qualifying RBs. He also sat 19th or lower in points per game across fantasy formats. A weak O-line and poor passing offense certainly didn't help. We're betting on more efficiency from Pierce in Year 2. But you should also expect the team to lighten his workload after importing RB Devin Singletary. See where both players sit in our 2023 RB rankings.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton ranked just 40th among WRs in PPR points per game and 41st in half-PPR last year. HC Nathaniel Hackett and QB Russell Wilson were problems. But Sutton finished well behind teammate Jerry Jeudy in fantasy points per game, as well as yards per target (9.7 to 7.6), yards per route run (2.18 to 1.55), and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.9 to 69.7). HC Sean Payton should be a significant upgrade for Denver's offense in 2023. But Wilson remains a question mark. And Sutton faces additional target competition with the addition of rookie WR Marvin Mims and the return of WR Tim Patrick (ACL). It all makes Sutton a fairly uninspiring fantasy pick, even at his WR39 ADP. He sits considerably lower than that in our updated WR rankings.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert enters year six looking to play a full season for the first time since 2018. Goedert missed five games with a small fracture in his shoulder last year. Still, he remained a big part of Philly’s passing game. Including the playoffs, he posted a 19.9% target share that only five TEs beat. He finished TE5 in fantasy points per game. While he remains the No. 3 target in a low-volume pass offense, Goedert’s proven highly efficient throughout his career. In fact, he paces all pass catchers in yards per target (10.6) over the past two seasons. The Eagles lost OC Shane Steichen to the Colts, but this unit shouldn’t change much following the promotion of QB coach Brian Johnson. Goedert, 28, profiles as a mid-level fantasy starter in our TE rankings.
Browns RB Nick Chubb posted a career year in 2022, finishing as the RB7 in PPR points per game (16.6). Even better, the lowest weekly fantasy finish Chubb recorded in 2022 was RB37, meaning he was at least a flex-worthy player in every game he played. He finished the season third in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, rushing yards (1,525), and yards after contact (1,050), in addition to tying for fourth in rushing TDs (12). But if you zoom in a bit, Chubb did take a step backward in a couple of areas. He logged a career-low 3.48 yards after contact per attempt, down from 4.24 and 4.00 the previous two years, and his 97.2 PFF Elusive Rating marked much lower than his 2021 (107.7) and 2020 (126.6) numbers. We still have a lot of faith in Chubb in 2023 despite the red flags. Only 2021 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford, a player who logged 8 total touches last season, stands as competition for touches, and the Browns’ offensive line that ranked eighth in PFF team run-blocking grade is still strong. See where Chubb lands in our current RB rankings.
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