Beat writer Bill Huber believes the Packers “might want to lean more on [Aaron] Jones” in 2023. Huber cites the transition to QB Jordan Love and the trust from HC Matt LaFleur. “[I] can’t say enough great things about him, just the man he is, the player he is, the son he is, the father he is,” LaFleur said of Jones last month. “He’s definitely, I’ll throw it out there... he’s one of my favorites.” Jones, who turns 29 in December, played all 17 games last season. He approached a career-high with 272 touches and did set a personal best in Pro Football Focus rushing grade (91.0, 2nd-best among RBs). Current Draft Sharks projections have the Packers at a balanced 54% pass rate; 46% run rate. Jones checks in as a top-20 option on the RB rankings.
Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.football reports that Saints RB Alvin Kamara has agreed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge stemming from his 2022 Las Vegas incident. Underhill adds that "the felony charge is going away." That doesn't necessarily tell us what to expect in terms of league suspension. But the lightening of charges can't be bad news for Kamara's NFL penalty. And the plea deal should help speed up the league's decision. Kamara has been going in low-RB3 range of best ball drafts, which has made him a value -- albeit with the risk of uncertainty. We'll keep updating his projection in our rankings as more becomes clear.
NFL analyst Greg Cosell believes Giants QB Daniel Jones will improve in 2023. “He throws a good ball… He’s big, and he’s physical. I’m expecting him to take another step forward,” Cosell said on the Inside the Birds podcast. “I’ve heard really good things about how smart he is, how he works at it. You have to believe he’s going to take another step within the context of the [HC] Brian Daboll/[OC] Mike Kafka offense.” It’s a reminder that Jones, only 26, can reach higher ceiling. Led by TE Darren Waller, an improved set of weapons only adds to Jones’ 2023 fantasy value. You’ll find him among the top-15 of our QB rankings.
Saints insider Nick Underhill believes RB Kendre Miller will rush for over 500 yards in 2023. In the words of Underhill: “Even if Alvin [Kamara] doesn’t miss time…I think he’s going to force his way on the field…. I think he’s going to earn snaps.” Miller is coming off a meniscus injury, but RB coach Joel Thomas believes the 21-year-old will be a full participant come training camp. Saints rookies report to training camp in one week.
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has already cracked the top 12 QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Drafters are obviously chasing his rushing upside, and he'll need big ground production to deliver for fantasy. There have been seven rookie-QB seasons in NFL history that would have ranked among last year's top 12 QB scores. That group had a median of 34.0 rushing yards per game (578 yards over a 17-game season) and a median of 234.8 passing yards per game. All seven of those rookie QBs averaged at least 213.3 passing yards per game. That would obviously be an easier level for Richardson to reach right away. And he's capable of smashing that 34-yard rushing benchmark. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all exceeded 50 rushing yards per game in 2022. Colts owner Jim Irsay recently reiterated that the team won't be scared to play Richardson early. The rookie doesn't sit as high in our 2023 fantasy football rankings as he does in Underdog ADP. But he certainly has the upside to deliver QB1-level production. Read more about his upside (and downside) in our Richardson profile.
Bills RB coach Kelly Skipper gave his assessment of 2nd-year RB James Cook. “Big jump (from first to second year),” Skipper said. “I see it in the classroom. You can see he’s taking control of the playbook. If I ask a question, he’s the first one to answer, where before, he was just really learning. He got that experience, and you saw how much better he got toward the end of the year.” We’ll see how Buffalo breaks down first-team reps at training camp between Cook and Damien Harris. Overall, look for this backfield to see a small uptick in volume. Per beat writer Ryan O’Halloran, the expectation is that the Bills will reduce Josh Allen’s rushing load. (Allen handled nearly 30% of Buffalo’s carries in 2022.) Visit our fantasy football RB rankings to see backfield expectations.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa enters Year 4 looking to build off a breakout 2022. He tallied four top-six fantasy finishes, a number that might have been higher if not for several concussions. Overall, Tua benefited from the dynamic pairing of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – plus the scheme of new HC Mike McDaniel. Credit McDaniel for truly emphasizing a Hill–Waddle duo that combined for a 51.2% target share. Tua also ranked 5th in RPO pass attempts; 3rd in play-action throws. 2023 turns up even more speed following the arrival of RB Devon Achane. While we’d still like to see O-line improvement, Tua’s ultimately positioned for a top-12 fantasy season. See exactly where he sits in the QB rankings.
Colts owner Jim Irsay hinted on Monday that his team plans to get rookie QB Anthony Richardson on the field early. "We know it’s going to be tough. But he has to play to get better," Irsay said on the Pat McAfee Show. "There’s no question. Gardner [Minshew] could play better early on, him just being a veteran. But we have to get Anthony on the field." Irsay added that HC Shane Steichen will ultimately decide when Richardson takes over as the starter. But Steichen had a similar message back in April, saying, "the development of players comes with more experience." We just bumped Richardson's projection up to 14 games played -- and that might still be conservative. His rushing ability gives him obvious QB1 upside whenever he takes the field.
Broncos QB Russell Wilson is coming off a tough 2022. He averaged just 235 passing yards and 1.1 TDs across his 15 games and posted career lows in completion rate, PFF passing grade, and his 7.3 yards per attempt was his second-worst mark among 11 NFL seasons. But don’t forget about how much the Broncos improved this offseason. The team spent big money on RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers in free agency and brought in former Saints HC Sean Payton to help right the ship. Plus, fantasy managers did see a slight bounce back from Wilson after the team fired HC Nathaniel Hackett, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game between Week 17-18. We feel that Wilson can be a quality QB2 in lineups this season. See where he comes out in our current QB rankings.
It's easy to be wary of Titans RB Derrick Henry in fantasy football. The 29-year-old exceeded 300 carries three of the past four years. The player aging curves that guide our dynasty projections say RBs see a bigger production drop-off at this age than any other position -- even among elite types. It would be quite abnormal for Henry to continue producing strong numbers. But Henry has always been abnormal, even among high-end NFL rushers. More importantly, he didn't show signs of decline last year. Henry actually improved his yards after contact per attempt, elusive rating, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade vs. his 2021 numbers. His rushing yards over expected rebounded from 0.05 per attempt in 2021 to 0.45 last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, despite a weak Tennessee offense and average O-line. Henry also did all of this despite seeing 8+ defenders in the box at the league's second-highest rate among RBs. The Titans drafted RB Tyjae Spears in Round 3 and might push some work his way. But we expect Henry to remain the workhorse in a run-favoring offense with an aging QB and mostly questionable pass catchers. Best of all, Henry's early ADP (late in Round 2, often into Round 3 in best ball drafts) lowers the risk to betting on him in fantasy. See how Henry's spot in our fantasy football rankings compares.
ESPN's Kevin Seifert writes that "all evidence suggests" that the Vikings will use RB Alexander Mattison "in the same every-down role that [Dalvin] Cook performed last season in coach Kevin O'Connell's offense." Cook played 72% of Minnesota's offensive snaps last year, averaging 15.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He ranked 12th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 14th in actual PPR points per game. Mattison will return a nice profit for fantasy teams if he approximates that role. Seifert also believes that RB Ty Chandler is the favorite for the #2 job, ahead of RBs Kene Nwangwu and DeWayne McBride.
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley believes the Ravens “could” field a top-5 O-line in 2023. This unit features three former first-round picks, including LT Ronnie Stanley, C Tyler Linderbaum, and RG Kevin Zeitler. Baltimore should be in fine shape as long as Zeitler (age 33) and RT Morgan Moses (32) remain above-average starters. However, LG is one spot to watch in camp after the offseason loss of Ben Powers. (Powers was Pro Football Focus’ second highest graded guard in 2022.) Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, John Simpson, and Patrick Mekari look like the top candidates to fill in. View our fantasy football rankings to see expectations for key Ravens like Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and others.
Texans beat writer Aaron Wilson believes QB C.J. Stroud is off to a “fast start” in Houston. Per Wilson, Stroud has enjoyed “a smooth experience while absorbing offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s 49ers-centric playbook, building timing, and chemistry with his receivers.” Barring a major surprise, the second-overall pick will start Week 1 at Baltimore. Still, Stroud should only factor into your superflex strategy on draft day.
ESPN analyst Matt Bowen expects the Ravens to play at a faster pace this season. That wasn’t the case last year; Baltimore ranked bottom-5 in plays per minute (1.63) and no-huddle rate (4.4%). “They decided last year under [OC Greg] Roman they were going to control tempo by slowing it down,” Bowen said. “[It was] a lot more condensed formations; they had much different personnel than you’ll see this year. [Fullback] Patrick Ricard last year played a critical role in that offense; I don’t know that he has a pivotal role this year with what I expect to see out of Monken." Bowen, a former NFL safety, shared more on his forecast for the 2023 Ravens. “This year, and I have old playbooks of Todd Monken, is a lot more spread, a lot more trips, a lot more empty," he continued. "What they’re trying to do with pace of play is to be more aggressive and control tempo in terms of creating more tempo.” We detailed more of Monken’s impact in a new article on NFL Coaching Changes. Overall, we’re bullish on this offense making considerable improvements.
Broncos RB Javonte Williams says “the plan” is for him to be medically cleared in time for training camp. No surprise there, as Williams put in some work at OTAs. He wouldn’t commit to suiting up for Week 1, saying it’s the Broncos’ decision. The team will certainly use the next two months to assess his readiness. We’ll track Williams’ progress closely in training camp, but for now, our RB rankings assume 14 games for the former Round 2 pick.
Dolphins beat writer Chris Perkins believes WR Braxton Berrios “will almost certainly” be the starting slot receiver. Berrios inked a one-year deal with $3 million guaranteed early in free agency. While he brings value as a returner, the 27-year-old totaled just 18 catches (in 17 games) last year with the Jets. Berrios also brings the speed (4.44 forty-time) that HC Mike McDaniel covets. He’ll be on the DFS/deep league spot-start radar if one of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle miss time.
New Panthers RB Miles Sanders is clearly in line to lead the team's rushing after signing the biggest free-agent contract for any RB that switched teams this offseason. HC Frank Reich called him "a three-down back" in June, according to AP. And Sanders said he's excited to reunite with RBs coach Duce Staley, who "knows what I can really do." He certainly seems to be expecting more receiving work. But Sanders' past three years have been pretty terrible in that area. He went from 3.1 receptions per game as a rookie to 2.3, 2.2, and 1.2. And his 10.2 yards per catch fell to 7.0, 6.1, and 3.9. Sanders has also seen his Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade decline each year. RB Chuba Hubbard doesn't look like a great bet to steal a big role after seeing his work decline in Year 2. RB Raheem Blackshear, however, caught 123 passes at 9.9 yards per catch over a 5-year college career that spanned two stops. There's also room for the Panthers to import a veteran such as Kareem Hunt. Sanders carries some upside from his mid-RB2 position in our fantasy football rankings. Just make sure you don't overrate him simply because you can't see who else in the Carolina backfield would claim significant opportunity share.
Falcons WR Drake London finished his rookie season just 45th among WRs in PPR points per game. Yet he's going 22nd among WRs right now in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Why? Well, London did rank sixth among all wideouts in target share in 2022. He enjoyed a strong finish after QB Desmond Ridder took over for Marcus Mariota, averaging 9.0 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 83.3 yards over the final four games. And Atlanta increased its passing volume over that span. But the team still ranked just 24th in neutral-situation pass rate over that time. London also trailed TE Kyle Pitts in target share before Pitts went down with a knee injury. Atlanta sports a weak receiving depth chart behind those two for 2023, so there's room for both exciting young pass catchers to continue drawing large shares. But London will need more team passing volume to help him pay off at ADP. And drafting RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall would be a funny way for the Falcons to announce that they're going to pass a lot more in 2023. London sits only a little lower in our 2023 WR rankings than he does in ADP.
NFL analyst Greg Cosell doesn’t expect Giants WR Jalin Hyatt to be a “major factor” in the 2023 offense. “I think he’s going to have a lot to learn,” Cosell said on the Inside the Birds podcast. “Yes, he can run. There’s no question he can run, and he can get on top of the defense … but I don’t think …based on tape study… that he’s going be a big factor, particularly early in the season.” The rookie fell to Round 3, perhaps due to a limited route tree and a single year of production. Either way, he landed with a Giants squad that’s unsettled at WR long-term. See where Hyatt landed in our dynasty WR rankings.
The Bills utilized 2-TE sets on only 38 snaps (3.7%) last season, per TruMedia. That number will rise following the addition of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. As The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia writes, “[the Bills] made Kincaid a key to opening things up and being more unpredictable on offense.” Buscaglia also notes that Buffalo leaned into 2-TE sets a bit more down the stretch last season. Dawson Knox counts ~$6.5 million against Buffalo’s cap, so he’ll retain a role. We’ll watch for training camp clues on how frequently OC Ken Dorsey plans to utilize 12 personnel. (The Bills practice just down the road from Draft Sharks headquarters.) Kincaid’s ADP is currently TE13, with Knox at TE20. Check the TE rankings to see where both guys land.
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