Saints QB Derek Carr obviously endured a rough final season with the Raiders. He got benched for the final two games and then released after the season. Before that, though, the veteran's performance declined significantly in multiple non-obvious categories. His 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since his rookie year (2014). Carr's 7.0 yards per pass attempt was his lowest mark since 2017, despite a career high in average depth of target. He posted his worst passer rating, Pro Football Focus passing grade and adjusted completion rate since 2014. And Carr's 2.8% INT rate was the worst of his career. The Saints obviously believe he can rebound, and Carr still finished 16th among QBs in total fantasy points; 20th in points per game. He's at least probably not a downgrade for New Orleans, but Carr sits just 26th in our QB rankings and isn't boosting the fantasy outlook for Chris Olave or any other Saints receiver.
Per a report from Fox Sports, Packers WR Romeo Doubs recently spoke glowingly about his new QB, Jordan Love. "When you go from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan, Aaron was a really great quarterback, but I believe Jordan can do the same exact thing," said Doubs, adding that he doesn't see "the big difference" between the two. That's certainly high praise to cast upon Love, especially when comparing him to a former MVP in now-Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. He'll have big shoes to fill in Green Bay. The question is, can he be a significant contributor in 2023? It's tough to say as of now. He's only appeared in parts of 10 games with one career start in Week 9 of 2021 when Love went 19 of 34 passing (55.8%) for 190 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a loss to Kansas City. But we know that the Packers' front office greatly believes in him. The team signed Love to a one-year/$13.5 million extension (worth up to $22.5 million) instead of picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Check out our QB rankings to see if we're as keen on Love as his teammate is.
Chad Graff of The Athletic writes that it was a “rough spring” for the Patriots’ O-line. Graff points out struggles at OT while noting that key RG Mike Onwenu missed spring practices (ankle surgery). We're not altering projections for Mac Jones or Rhamondre Stevenson. But we’ll keep a close eye on this unit as the pads come on at training camp.
Zac Jackson of The Athletic believes Browns QB Deshaun Watson will be “much better” in 2023. We’re in strong agreement there. Watson struggled across six late-season games last year, tallying 6.5 yards per attempt and a 58.2% completion rate. But let’s recognize that he played his first regular season games since the 2020 season. And we’re ultimately talking about a small sample of 170 attempts. Cleveland added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman to a receiving corps already featuring Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku. Watson sits inside the top 10 of our QB rankings.
ESPN's Adam Schefter believes Sam Darnold will head to training camp as the favorite for the 49ers' No. 2 QB job. With a healthy QB Brock Purdy the favorite to start, that'd leave QB Trey Lance third on the depth chart. Schefter adds that he doesn't expect Lance to be traded because "there was never a lot of interest." The massive fall continues for Lance, who was the third overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. He's certainly worth keeping stashed on dynasty rosters, but it's getting tougher to spend a pick on Lance at any point of best-ball drafts.
Christian McCaffrey led RBs in PPR points per game and ranked third in non-PPR across his nine full regular-season games with the 49ers last season. But his usage and production declined when RB Elijah Mitchell was healthy. In seven games without Mitchell (including playoffs), McCaffrey averaged 24.1 opportunities (carries + targets), 135 total yards, and 1.3 TDs. He sunk to 17.2 opportunities, 85 total yards, and 0.6 TDs in five games with Mitchell. McCaffrey’s scoring averages in those five games would have ranked seventh among RBs in PPR points per game for the season and 12th in non-PPR. It's certainly possible that McCaffrey's usage alongside Mitchell grows in 2023 after a full offseason in the offense. But the Mitchell splits are certainly worth considering as you decide whether to spend a top-5 pick on McCaffrey in fantasy drafts this summer. See our baseline, ceiling, and floor projections for McCaffrey.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon regressed in many statistical categories in 2022. He recorded 270 touches, 1,255 total yards, and 9 total TDs with 17.1 PPR points per game, all down from the 334-1,519-16 line he posted the season prior. There are definitely reasons to be nervous about a 27-year-old RB coming off a down year, but don't forget about how effective he was as a receiver last year. He saw a career-high in targets (75), receptions (60), and receiving yards (441) in 2022, ranking within the top-6 at the position in each category. Moreover, Mixon ranked seventh in PFF receiving grade among RBs who received at least 40 targets last year. He finished 18th in this same measure in 2021. We anticipate he'll be a valuable piece of the Bengals' passing game again in 2023. Mixon is a sneaky good value this year in PPR drafts. See how many catches we have him projected for in our current RB rankings.
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard is expected to be ready for training camp, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Pollard's 2022 season ended with a fractured left fibula on January 22, but his recovery has gone smoothly based on reports throughout the offseason. That leg injury shouldn't be a factor by the time this coming season kicks off. Pollard sits inside the top 10 RBs in our 2023 PPR Rankings.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett finished 16th among WRs in PPR points per game last season -- his fifth straight top-25 finish. Lockett will turn 31 in September but has shown no signs of decline. He ranked 20th among 80 qualifying WRs in yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year. And he beat 25-year-old teammate D.K. Metcalf in all three metrics. Even with the arrival of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we're not betting against another top-25 season from Lockett. See exactly where he sits in the 2023 WR Rankings.
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith spent part of the winter rehabbing a toe injury from Super Bowl 57. He’s back to 100% and looking to appear in all 17 games for the third straight season. (So much for those concerns about his slim frame.) In 2022, Smith nearly matched A.J. Brown in target share (27% vs. 28.6%). The ‘Bama product finished as the PPR WR9, up from a WR29 finish as a rookie. Top-12 fantasy upside remains in a condensed Eagles passing game. Smith turns just 25 in November.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is being investigated on assault and battery allegations for an incident at a Miami Beach marina over the weekend. According to insider Andy Slater, Hill allegedly slapped an employee of the marina on the back of the head during an argument. That employee has declined to press charges at this time. We'll keep you updated on the situation. For now, we're not moving Hill in the 2023 WR Rankings -- but it's not crazy to pass on him in the first five or six picks of fantasy drafts if you want to avoid any suspension risk.
UPDATE: The employee has decided to press charges. We'll continue to monitor this story for developments.
You probably already know that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans got a large fantasy boost from his monster Week 17 outing last year: 10 catches, 207 yards, 3 TDs. That game accounted for 21.6% of his PPR scoring for the season. And his 8-103-2 line in Week 4 against the Chiefs accounted for another 13.4%. Evans' downfield nature has always made him a volatile weekly scorer, but last year delivered fewer of the high-end fantasy lines. Evans posted four top-12 weeks in 2020, five in 2021, and then just three last year. He followed eight top-24 weeks in 2020 with 10 in 2021 but only five last season. And now comes a QB downgrade from Tom Brady to whomever wins the Baker Mayfield-Kyle Trask showdown. Even at Evans' depressed ADP, it has been tough to like him in drafts. See where he sits in our 2023 fantasy football rankings, and read more about why you should be wary.
Per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has expressed his desire this offseason to be utilized more as a deep threat in the passing game in 2023. Lions WR coach Antwaan Randle El shared that he "has seen subtle growth" from St. Brown in OTAs and minicamps that can help him achieve that goal. The former fourth-round pick finished 2022 as the WR7 overall with 16.8 PPR points per game last season, leading the Lions in targets (145), target share (27.8%), and Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.57) while finishing 2nd on the team in air yards share (25.8%). The tricky part is we haven't seen St. Brown used much as a deep threat in his career so far. According to PFF, only 9 of his targets last year were measured at 20+ yards downfield, and St. Brown's career average depth of target (aDOT) is 6.8. Such a shift in usage would be a big change, though St. Brown did register a 10.6 career aDOT across three seasons in college at USC. Whether he becomes a deep shot receiver or not, we're bullish about St. Brown entering the 2023 season. Check out where he sits in our current WR rankings.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes the Chargers’ O-line is in "outstanding shape” entering training camp. “The starting five has a chance to be special, especially with [Zion] Johnson moving to his more natural position at left guard next to an All-Pro in [Rashawn] Slater," Popper adds. Call it a bonus for QB Justin Herbert, who should already benefit from the addition of Round 1 WR Quentin Johnston. Without question, Herbert is one of the top fantasy QBs for 2023.
Multiple reports on Tuesday indicate that free agent RB Sony Michel is signing with the Rams. The terms of the deal are unknown as of this writing. This will be Michel's second stint with the team, as he spent the 2021 season as a member of the Rams team that won Super Bowl LVI. The former first-round pick was a member of the Chargers in 2022, racking up 106 rushing yards on 36 carries in a limited role last year. Michel brings five seasons of NFL experience to a backfield littered with inexperienced players like Zach Evans, the Rams' 2023 sixth-round draft pick, and 2022 rookies Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. While the signing of Michel certainly doesn't reflect super well on these younger backs, though it's too soon to make a big deal about the Rams bringing in a 28-year-old with an extensive injury history. Training camp will help give us an idea as to which of these players will seize the RB2 role behind presumed backfield leader Cam Akers in 2023. Still, we project Akers to have a sizable workload in this backfield this upcoming season. Take a look at where Akers appears in our current RB rankings.
The Chargers “remain high” on RB Isaiah Spiller, per The Athletic’s Daniel Popper. It’s not shocking since Spiller arrived in Round 4 just one year ago. He battled an August ankle injury and never locked down the RB2 job behind Austin Ekeler. Across six games, Spiller posted only 41 yards on 18 carries. We’ll see if the Chargers add a veteran RB over the coming weeks. Even if they pass, Spiller must beat out Josh Kelley for the backup job.
There's no QB competition in New England, according to Evan Lazar of the team's official website. "Mac Jones works hard, he's bought in, and his confidence is returning," Lazar writes. "Jones' command as a field general at the line of scrimmage is lightyears ahead of where things were last year. ... Jones is also throwing with his vintage touch and accuracy on crossers and fades (outside/slot) to generate big plays." Jones still isn't an exciting fantasy pick. He doesn't offer rushing upside, and New England's pass-catching corps is underwhelming. But being locked in as the starter at least makes Jones a fine QB3 target in superflex and best-ball drafts.
The Athletic's Mark Kaboly lists WR Allen Robinson as one of the Steelers' offseason winners. Robinson "impressed in every facet, especially in the slot at the goal line," Kaboly writes. "The move to the slot appears to be natural for Robinson. He’s shifty and has a knack for finding space in tight red zone areas, which could lead to some easy touchdowns. ... It sure seems to me that Robinson is going to be a big part of the team’s success this year." Fantasy owners should be skeptical considering Robinson drew praise from Rams beat writers last summer before turning in an abysmal 2022 season. He's still not a priority target in fantasy drafts, even at his dirt-cheap price tag. But we'll continue to keep a close eye on Robinson when training camp opens next month.
Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell expects WR Jordan Addison to be a full-go for the start of training camp next month. The rookie missed most of the offseason program with an undisclosed injury. “We’ve had a plan in place for him and continuing to kind of build up to where he’ll be,” O’Connell said. “He’ll be spending quite a bit of time continuing his playbook. He’s been phenomenal in meetings and out here asking great questions when they come up." It's worth noting that Addison missed time at USC last year with leg and ankle injuries, although it's unclear if this latest issue is related. If healthy, Addison has a great shot to open the season as Minnesota's No. 2 WR behind Justin Jefferson. See where Addison sits in the 2023 WR Rankings.
Rams TE Tyler Higbee set career highs last year with 108 targets and 72 catches. His 620 yards were his second most among seven NFL seasons. He ranked fourth among all TEs in targets, fifth in catches, and ninth in receiving yards. Despite underachieving in the TD department -- his three scores ranked 19th at his position -- Higbee finished TE6 in PPR points. The Rams shipped WR Allen Robinson to Pittsburgh earlier this offseason and only added fifth-round rookie WR Puka Nacua, free-agent WR Demarcus Robinson, fifth-round rookie TE Davis Allen, and TE Hunter Long to the pass-catching corps. So Higbee looks set up for a bunch more targets in 2023. Although not the most exciting player, he's a nice value at his TE15 ADP.
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