It's not hard to figure out why new Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo made it into Round 2 of the NFL Draft. He averaged 15.7 yards per catch for his SEC career, including 16.9 his final season at Ole Miss. Then he ran a 4.46-second 40 time at the Scouting Combine and notched 89th-percentile measurements in the broad and vertical jumps -- at nearly 6'2 and 220 pounds. So what's not to like? Mingo caught just 39 passes across his first two college seasons. He seemed on his way to a breakthrough junior year before a foot fracture disrupted things. And even in his best (fourth) season, Mingo still trailed teammate Malik Heath in receptions and yards. That makes it tough to expect Mingo to immediately lead an NFL WR corps in production. The rookie sits just ahead of Adam Thielen to lead Panthers WRs in Underdog ADP. But you won't find him nearly so high in our WR rankings. Carolina doesn't sport an impressive group at the position, but be careful about overrating the rookie on that factor.
Raiders beat writer Vincent Bonsignore doesn’t expect the team to extend RB Josh Jacobs prior to Monday’s deadline. Jacobs hasn’t signed his franchise tag, so he’s not subject to fines if he skips training camp. Bonsignore expects Jacobs to show up for the regular season and calls a trade “unlikely.” The 25-year-old finished at RB3 last year, boosted by a massive 393 touches. He'll remain an RB1 when active, but second-year man Zamir White brings plenty of intrigue as a late-round handcuff. Get White starred on your cheat sheet.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler led the NFL with 18 total TDs last season. It's tough to bank on that level of TD production again in 2023. But Ekeler's usage suggests that he might not regress much. He tied for sixth league-wide with 24 carries inside the 10-yard line AND ranked third with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line last year. He registered 15.3 expected TDs -- meaning that Ekeler only slightly out-produced his usage. He should play a similar role this season. And the Chargers offense could be even better under new OC Kellen Moore. It all makes Ekeler one of 2023's best TD bets. See exactly how many scores we project him for this season.
Fantasy managers shouldn't overlook Steelers WR Diontae Johnson this season. As bad as it was that he scored zero receiving TDs in 2022, Johnson led the Steelers in targets (147), target share (26.8%), and receptions (85). Unfortunately, that only translated to Johnson finishing as the WR42 in PPR points per game (10.63). Those aren't the results you want to see from a team's WR1. Even so, his zero TD season was somewhat historic. Among NFL WRs in the Super Bowl era who caught zero receiving TDs in a season, Johnson’s 2022 campaign ranks first in PPR points (180.7) and targets, third in receiving yards (882), and sixth in PPR points per game. Not so bad, all things considered. Assuming he even catches a small handful of TDs, Johnson stands to improve in 2023. He's likely to maintain his status as the lead pass-catcher in the Steelers' offense and should be considered a strong flex option for fantasy managers. See where Johnson appears in our latest WR rankings.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White looks like he's in line for as many touches as he can handle this season. The team dumped Leonard Fournette in the offseason and signed only Chase Edmonds. Tampa Bay also didn't draft a RB, adding only undrafted free agents Sean Tucker and Ronnie Brown. So what's not to like about White? He wasn't good last year. Among 51 RBs who carried 90+ times, White ranked 46th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 41st in elusive rating and 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt. An O-line that ranked just 28th in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards didn't help. That group could improve, with C Ryan Jensen back healthy and second-round rookie G Cody Mauch entering the mix. But that group doesn't look likely to be a strength. The QB switch should mean a higher rushing rate. The Bucs ranked last in the league in run rate each of the past two years. Expect that to change with Tom Brady gone. So White could be set for big touch volume, which would make him at least decent as a fantasy option, even if he remains inefficient. But it's also possible we get surprising production from some other member(s) of the backfield. And Tampa Bay could still add a RB. White makes plenty of sense low in RB2 territory in the 2023 RB rankings. Just don't reach for him too early.
The Bengals and RB Joe Mixon have agreed to a restructured contract that will keep him with the team through 2023. There have been rumors all off-season of Cincinnati dumping Mixon’s big contract, but the restructure saves the team cap space. It also locks him in as the continued backfield leader and a value in fantasy football drafts. Mixon has sat high in our fantasy football rankings the whole time.
Bills beat reporter Sal Capaccio projects RB James Cook to roughly match Devin Singletary’s 2022 workload. The former Bill tallied 177 carries; 38 catches. “He [Cook] is not the biggest guy. He’s 190 pounds…not many running backs are that slight,” Carpaccio said on the Outside the Gridiron podcast. “He can still run between the tackles but you don’t want to do that too much to him. You don’t want him taking a pounding. That’s why the Bills signed Damien Harris.” Per Capaccio, the Bills entered the offseason determined to improve their short-yardage offense – a sentiment confirmed by the signing of Harris. His arrival – and the presence of Josh Allen – brings uncertainty to Cook’s TD outlook. Head to Cook's player page, and you'll see he's projected for only 5 total scores.
The Jets have agreed to a four-year, $96 million extension with DT Quinnen Williams, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The deal includes $66 million in guarantees. The fifth-year veteran is coming off his best season to date and still won't turn 26 until December. You can find Williams among the top DTs in our IDP rankings.
Speaking with NFL Network's Peter Schrager, Lions GM Brad Holmes assessed his new backfield. "When you look at it systematically, I do think we'll be better offensively," Holmes said. "That's no knock on the contributions that those other two guys gave us. [D’Andre] Swift is a dynamic player and Jamaal [Williams] was a great leader for us, and he did so much for us. He had a great season. But I think [David] Montgomery and Jahmyr [Gibbs] are different backs. Montgomery does a little bit more in the passing game. And being able to add Gibbs, he's just so dynamic as a receiver. Look, he's a home run hitter as a running back, that's the easy part. What he does as a receiver -- he runs routes like a receiver." Holmes added that Gibbs is a “special weapon” who reminds him of Christian McCaffrey and Marshall Faulk. See where both Lions sit in our 2023 RB rankings.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a top-25 finish among WRs in fantasy points per game and has had an impressive offseason by all accounts. But his target volume is a concern heading into 2023. Aiyuk drew a 22.0% target share last year -- 32nd among WRs. But that dipped to 20.1% in 14 games with a healthy WR Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk saw just 17.9% of 49ers targets in seven games with Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey. Samuel, McCaffrey, and TE George Kittle are back this year. And San Francisco figures to remain a run-leaning offense regardless of who's playing QB. That has Aiyuk sitting a bit lower in the WR Rankings than his talent would dictate.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier ran efficiently as a 2022 rookie. Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries (including the playoffs), he ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating, and tied for 12th in yards per carry. He also ranked ninth in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry, among 36 RBs with 90+ carries. Allgeier took over the backfield after the Week 14 bye, averaging 19.8 carries per game and claiming 56% of the team's rushing attempts over the final four games. He's not going to get anywhere near that after Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall. But it's fair to wonder whether Allgeier will cut too far into Robinson's workload to allow the rookie to pay off his Round 1 fantasy ADP. We'll watch for signals of the work share plan through training camp and preseason. Expect Allgeier to remain more handcuff than standalone fantasy option. You can read more about his outlook in our 2023 RB rankings.
Titans insider Jim Wyatt writes that RB Tyjae Spears “was among the team’s offseason standouts.” Wyatt specifically notes the rookie’s “shiftiness and speed.” Those traits certainly showed up on his Tulane tape. Then, Spears confirmed his exciting athleticism at the combine with a 91st-percentile vertical jump and an 87th-percentile broad jump (per MockDraftable). Currently the No. 2 RB behind Derrick Henry, Spears is a late-round handcuff worth circling on your cheat sheet.
Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic suggested in a recent report that he expects RB Michael Carter to be RB2 on the Jets' depth chart to open the 2023 season. Rosenblatt also noted that the possibility of free agent RB Dalvin Cook signing with the team "looms large" in the room, though Carter is "the most experienced, popular in the locker room and is generally a quality pass-catcher." It'll be fascinating to see how long he can hold onto this job assuming Rosenblatt is correct. Last season was not great for Carter. He opened the first six full games averaging 11.8 touches per game spelling fellow RB Breece Hall. Though after Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 vs. the Broncos, Carter's involvement dipped to just 7.6 touches per game. He was essentially phased out of a dysfunctional offense late in the year, eventually falling behind 2022 UDFA Zonovan Knight. Among 45 RBs with 100+ carries, Carter ranked 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 45th in yards per carry, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. On top of that, he only finished as a top-24 RB in PPR scoring in four games. Perhaps fantasy managers would be best to avoid Carter and bet on rookie Israel Abanikanda, a player who Rosenblatt predicts will inherit the #2 job as the season unfolds, instead. See where each of these backs appear in our current RB rankings.
ESPN's Dianna Russini hears that Giants RB Saquon Barkley's availability for the start of the season is "in serious question" if he doesn't get a long-term deal from the Giants. Barkley was slapped with the franchise tag earlier this offseason, and the two sides "remain at a stalemate," per Russini. The deadline to sign a long-term deal is July 17 at 4 pm ET. We'll see where this goes over the next few days and if Barkley reports to the team absent a long-term deal. We've seen him drop to the back half of Round 2 in recent drafts. He's worth the risk at that point.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is "healed up," owner Jim Irsay said Monday on The Pat McAfee Show. Taylor underwent right-ankle surgery early in the offseason to address a lingering issue. He missed offseason workouts, but it sounds like he'll be ready to roll come training camp. We'll keep an eye on Taylor throughout the summer, but that ankle shouldn't impact his 2023 fantasy value.
Bengals HC Zac Taylor has been impressed by how quickly TE Irv Smith has settled into the offense. "Forget about the talent. He's a talented guy. We knew that's what we've seen on tape so that didn't surprise me in anyway," Taylor said. "But I think just how quickly he's integrated himself has been really impressive. That's the most impressive thing about Irv is how quickly he's picked everything up and even taken on the nuances." Smith has a clear path to the starting job in Cincinnati, with only Drew Sample and Devin Asiasi as "competition." The former second-round pick has disappointed through three NFL seasons but turns just 25 in August. The Bengals' high-scoring offense gives Smith a good shot to jumpstart his career. He's an intriguing upside TE2 target late in fantasy drafts.
Lions QB coach Mark Brunell gave a progress update on rookie Hendon Hooker. Hooker recently said he’s “progressing really well” in his left ACL rehab. "If he didn't have [a great work ethic], he wouldn't be here. He's a smart player, puts the time in. The most important thing is him getting strong and healthy," Brunell told The Detroit News. "But I'm really pleased with him. As far as the meetings are concerned, we throw a bunch of questions at those rookies and try to put them in a tough spot. And he always does a very good job, and it's very clear that he's putting the time in." Hooker remains a dynasty stash.
Saints WR Chris Olave is a tough nut to crack regarding his 2023 outlook. Olave finished as the WR27 in PPR points per game and ranked 21st among all WRs in target share as a rookie last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games. His 2.42 yards per route also ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets in 2022. It’s clear that Olave made the best of his team situation and can produce at a high level. The issue is, how much better can he be? New QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade, but he isn’t a strong deep-ball passer. According to PFF, Carr’s 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year. Dalton ranked 34th by contrast. This is an important factor considering 23.7% of Olave’s targets last year were 20+ yard deep shots. A healthy WR Michael Thomas could also be an issue in 2023, though Olave’s target share was slightly higher over the first three weeks of last season when Thomas was healthy than it was from Week 4 on without him. We expect Olave to have a strong sophomore season, though we’re cautious. See where he stands in our current WR rankings.
Broncos TE Greg Dulcich revamped his offseason workout plan "with a focus on increased flexibility," according to The Athletic's Nick Kosmider. The hope is that'll solve the hamstring problems that Dulcich dealt with throughout his rookie season. (Check out Dulcich's full injury history.) When he was healthy last year, Dulcich scored as a top-10 fantasy TE. With better health -- and a likely improved Denver offense under new HC Sean Payton -- Dulcich has breakout potential in 2023.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf underwhelmed last year, finishing 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR. Blame bad TD luck. Metcalf scored a career-low six times on a career-low 6.7% TD rate. He found the end zone on 13.4% of his receptions over his first three seasons. And it wasn't for lack of opportunity last year. Metcalf ranked second among WRs with 27 red-zone targets, sixth in targets inside the 10-yard line, and first in end-zone targets. He's a safe bet for more TDs in 2023 -- and potentially A LOT more TDs. We currently project Metcalf for 8.2 scores.
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