Former Vikings GM -- and current CBS analyst -- Rick Spielman visited Buccaneers minicamp in June and came away expecting QB Baker Mayfield to be the starter. "Even though they say it's an open competition, the feel that I got, there's no question Baker will be the starting quarterback," Spielman said on a CBS podcast. That's certainly the general assumption and how we have Bucs passers in our QB rankings. But Mayfield would get at least a slight boost as the sure starter. And his current Underdog Fantasy superflex ADP has him at QB32, last among starters. Especially if you combine him with WRs Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans -- or even RB Rachaad White, who caught 50 passes as a rookie -- there's upside for Mayfield from that starting point. Check out our superflex rankings for more.
Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has teammates fired up about his leadership heading into his second season. “When he talks, you listen,” TE Jonnu Smith told The Athletic. “Having leadership qualities is the most important trait you should have as a quarterback. He has that. He’s been coming in here and working his butt off. I have nothing but great things to say about Desmond.” Those words come from a seventh-year veteran heading into his age-28 season and in his first offseason with the Falcons. Others had similar praise for Ridder, who has not only led on-field work but reportedly been organizing events with teammates away from the field. All of this could mean nothing for his in-game performance. And Taylor Heinicke stands in wait as Ridder insurance. But all signs point to the Falcons hoping that Ridder will be their guy for at least the near future. He’s a fine late shot to take in superflex drafts. Check out his spot in our superflex rankings.
The Athletic's Joe Person highlighted WRs Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo in the "Stock Up" section of a recent article. The Panthers re-made their WR corps this offseason under new HC Frank Reich, trading away D.J. Moore and adding Mingo, Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark to Marshall and Laviska Shenault. It seems like playing time is up for grabs heading to training camp later this month. We'll keep you updated on the situation.
Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website expects a "big leap" from TE Chig Okonkwo this year. "He's had a solid offseason," Wyatt adds. Okonkwo didn't see quite enough volume to be a real fantasy factor as a rookie last season, turning 46 targets into 32 catches, 450 yards, and three TDs. But he averaged a huge 14.1 yards per catch and shined in underlying metrics like targets per route and yards per route. With very little target competition in Tennessee, Okonkwo has breakout potential in 2023.
Panthers QB Andy Dalton believes he’s still a top-32 QB in the NFL. “I view myself as a starter in this league; I don’t think there are 32 guys better than me,” Dalton told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “But this is the situation I am in, and I understand that. As soon as I don’t think I’m one of the best 32, or a little lower, I’ll be watching football on TV.” Barring a summer face plant from Bryce Young, Dalton will enter September in a backup role.
Patriots TE Mike Gesicki aims to rebound from a down 2022. A change of scenery helps, as Gesicki ran only 354 routes last season — way down from 2021 (539). His targets per route run also sunk, from 22.7% to 15.5% in Year 1 under HC Mike McDaniel. The Pats took a flier on Gesicki, inking the 27-year-old to a 1-year deal worth $4.5 million. He needs QB Mac Jones to bounce back in Year 3. But barring the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins, Gesicki should hold a role that makes him a fantasy spot-starter. Ideally, he’s your TE3 in best ball leagues.
Titans RB Hassan Haskins has been charged with "aggravated assault by strangulation," according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. Haskins reportedly fought with his girlfriend, who was also arrested. We'll see how this situation plays out. Haskins doesn't look likely to be a fantasy factor even if these charges don't produce any league or team discipline.
Panthers RB Miles Sanders is in a strong situation to provide fantasy value this year. The Panthers gave Sanders the biggest RB contract in free agency by total money ($25 million), guaranteed money ($13 million), and average annual salary ($6.25 million). HC Frank Reich and company want Sanders to be their feature back, and they place a lot of faith in his abilities to shoulder large responsibilities. “Miles is a three-down back, and he can do a little bit of everything," said Reich during OTAs. "He’s explosive, he’s fast, and he has good vision and patience. Really smart. And on third down, when he has to block, he’s a willing blocker.” There isn't a ton of competition behind Sanders, either. Chuba Hubbard logged just 6.3 carries and 0.9 targets per game in 2022 following the Christian McCaffrey trade, and Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown combined for 44 touches in last year’s Panthers backfield. We project a major workload for Sanders in 2023, though his ceiling will depend on how many scoring opportunities the Panthers' offense will have with a rookie QB at the helm. See where we have him slated in our current RB rankings.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill endured a rough 2022. Hurting his right ankle twice led to two stretches of missed games. When on the field, though, he played fine. His 65.2% completion rate remained in line with his career rate (64.3%). His 4.0% TD rate was below league average for starters but matched his 2021 number. His 1.8% TD rate was the second-lowest of his career. And Tannehill ranked a decent 18th in Pro Football Focus passing grade among 43 QBs with 150+ dropbacks. That followed rankings of 10th, seventh and third. Tannehill now heads into his age-35 season with a cap hit near $37 million and almost $19 million in dead cap if Tennessee were to move on. His competition is a second-round rookie (Will Levis) and second-year player who stunk as a rookie (Malik Willis). You can tell by our superflex rankings that we're not expecting a high-impact season from Tannehill. But he finished each of the previous three years among the top 16 QBs in fantasy points per game. Something near that would make Tannehill a nice value in superflex and 2-QB formats.
NFL Network's James Palmer had "multiple people" in the Broncos organization tell him that Tim Patrick is "the best football player in that WR room." That WR room also includes Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and second-round rookie Marvin Mims. QB Russell Wilson felt most comfortable throwing to Patrick last offseason, per Palmer. And the belief (hope?) is that Patrick's August torn ACL played a big part in Wilson's ugly 2022 season. Patrick is on track to be ready for Week 1, which is good news for Wilson. But it's tough to see Patrick emerging as a reliable fantasy option barring an injury to Jeudy or Sutton. Patrick is at least worth considering near the end of best-ball drafts.
Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points (and ninth in non-PPR points) over the final 10 games of last season. He averaged 5.4 targets, 4.3 catches, 39.6 receiving yards, and 0.8 receiving TDs per game during that span -- all top-2 marks among RBs. McKinnon also ranked eighth among 43 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 10th in yards per route run. He's in for some TD regression after scoring on nine of 56 receptions last year. But, with the Chiefs returning the same backfield, McKinnon should again play a big role in the passing game in 2023. He looks like a nice value at his recent RB44 PPR ADP. McKinnon sits a handful of spots higher in our 2023 PPR RB Rankings.
Browns RB Nick Chubb averaged a career-high 17.7 carries per game in 2022. RB coach Stump Mitchell thinks that number may increase this fall. "Well, Nick hasn’t averaged 20 carries any single year in his career," Mitchell said via the Akron Beacon Journal. "If anything, they may increase. Hopefully we'll be a lot more successful in the passing game and we'll be running the ball more in the third or fourth quarter.” Michell also said Chubb will have an “opportunity to catch more passes.” (He even said a 1,000-yard receiving season is within reach, a wild claim.) The veteran tallied 27 catches for 239 yards last season and owns a career-high of 36 catches (2019). Current projections have Chubb pegged for 300 total touches.
Cardinals WR Marquise Brown was, not surprisingly, more productive in games without WR DeAndre Hopkins than with him last year. How much more productive? Brown averaged just 4.3 catches, 39 yards, and 0 TDs in four games with Hopkins. Those numbers spiked to 6.3 catches, 69 yards, and 0.38 TDs in eight games without Hopkins. Brown's 15.5 PPR points per game in those outings would have ranked 14th among WRs for the season. Most importantly, Brown went from 7.5 targets per game on a 19.7% share without Hopkins to 9.6 targets on a 23.8% share without him. Hopkins, of course, was released by Arizona in May. And the team only added WRs Michael Wilson and Zach Pascal this offseason. It sets Brown up for hefty volume in 2023. See exactly where he lands in the 2023 WR Rankings.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins is about as consistent as they come in fantasy football. He's hovered around a 20% target share and a 30% air yards share annually and has recorded three straight 900+ receiving yard seasons since 2020. Higgins has never finished outside the top 20 in Pro Football Focus receiving grade in any season among WRs who received 100+ targets in that span. He'll continue to play second fiddle to teammate Ja'Marr Chase, but Higgins is a reliable WR2 option for fantasy managers with occasional room to boom for more. Should Chase miss any time, Higgins has the upside to be a true WR1 in the Bengals' offense. In four games without Chase in 2022 between Week 8 and Week 13, Higgins ranked 11th overall in PPR (75.1), 9th in PPR points per game (18.8), 16th in target share (26.7%), 3rd in air yards share (46.4%), and 6th in receiving yards per game (92.8) among all WRs. See where we have Higgins in our current WR rankings.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne got a big boost in rushing volume after the team quit on RB James Robinson last season. He went from 32% carry share over the first six games to 61.4% from Week 7 on. But Etienne actually lost target share after Robinson's demotion. He drew 8.9% over the first six games vs. just 6.5% the rest of the way. That's a legitimate concern heading into Year 3, especially after Jacksonville selected RB Tank Bigsby in Round 3. The rookie claimed a class-leading 15.3% target share at Auburn in 2022. If Bigsby beats -- or even matches -- Etienne in receiving opportunities, the incumbent's ceiling would come down. Etienne's RB13 ADP matches his current spot in our PPR rankings. But there's downside risk from that position.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott missed 5 games last year with a right thumb fracture. Back healthy, he’s looking to play a full season for the first time since 2019. As Nick Harris of the Cowboys’ official site writes, “the new offense [with HC Mike McCarthy as play caller]… has been constructed completely around Dak.” Prescott, with two years remaining on his current deal, might also receive an extension this summer. Currently, he’s scheduled to count nearly $60 million against Dallas’ 2024 cap. Before then, Dak will look to capitalize on the arrival of WR Brandin Cooks, who gives this unit a more dynamic 11 personnel. Prescott ultimately projects as a low-end QB1 for fantasy managers.
The Patriots have agreed to a three-year extension with WR DeVante Parker that could be worth up to $33 million, according to multiple reports. The new pact replaces what would have been the final year on the contract Parker brought with him from Miami. ESPN's Mike Reiss reports that the deal lowers his 2023 base salary but offers per-game roster bonuses that can double that number. The contract also includes incentives, among them achieving All-Pro status. We're not betting on Parker reaching that level and thus aren't counting on him attaining the contract's full value. But he's probably more central to New England's 2023 plans -- at least -- than Parker's end-of-draft ADP to date on FFPC indicates. He's a no-risk stash late in best ball drafts, especially when you've already cheaply added QB Mac Jones. See where Parker sits in our WR rankings.
Browns TE David Njoku awoke from his fantasy slumber and finished as TE11 overall with 10.1 points per game in 2022. He hadn't finished that high since being the TE9 in 2018 and has only two other career top-25 fantasy seasons to his name. Fantasy managers looking for a high-end contributor at TE in 2023 outside the elite tier of players should look no further than Njoku. The former 1st-round pick finished 2022 12th among TEs in target share (18.2%), 13th in air yards share (15.2%), and fifth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Though most of that production came with QB Jacoby Brissett in the lineup last season, we feel optimistic about QB Deshaun Watson's chances at improving in 2023, which will certainly keep Njoku among the highest opportunity earners at the position. Take a look at where he we have him projected in our current TE rankings.
Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks aims to rebound from a down 2022. The veteran tallied 57 catches, 699 yards, and 3 TDs while missing 4 games. Cooks’ efficiency metrics stunk, but it’s tough to knock him, given Houston’s awful QB play. A March trade to Dallas gives new life to his fantasy value. The Cowboys handed Cooks ~$12 million guaranteed, so they’re confident in him performing as the No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb. Based on work at OTAs, Cooks’ speed remains a dangerous trait. “Not only the speed, but I think he's an exceptional route runner,” HC Mike McCarthy said via ESPN. “He has a great understanding of routes and time clocks, and specifics of getting in and out of breaks.” See where he slots in our WR rankings.
WR Davante Adams' usage changed considerably in his first year with the Raiders. He was mostly a short-range target in his final three seasons in Green Bay, registering average target depths of 10.0, 8.9, and 9.6 yards. He caught 71.2% of those targets and averaged 12.2 yards per catch. In Vegas last year, Adams posted an 11.8-yard average target depth. As a result, his catch rate sunk to 55.6%, but he set a career high with 15.2 yards per catch. Adams’ 8.4 yards per target last year was down a bit from his 8.8 yards over those final three seasons with the Packers. But it still ranked 30th among 85 WRs with 50+ targets. The concern heading into 2023 is that new starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo has never ranked better than 16th in Pro Football Focus' deep passing grade. So Adams' efficiency could suffer if he continues working downfield as much as he did last season. We'll keep a close eye on the situation throughout the summer.
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