Chargers WR Quentin Johnston scored his first career TD in the Week 10 win over the Lions, breaking wide open on a well-designed play-action fake from one yard out. That was the only real highlight of his outing, though. Johnston finished with four catches for 34 yards in a game when QB Justin Herbert chucked for 323 yards. Johnston's four targets tied for fourth on the team and were just 10% of the total. He also drew a 15-yard pass interference penalty but dropped what could have been an 86-yard TD on the play. Johnston continues to run a lot of low-percentage routes and simply isn't creating much separation. He's at least a full-time player right now with WR Josh Palmer out. That keeps Johnston in play as a WR4. But he does not look like a player on the cusp of a breakout.
Saints WR Chris Olave caught 6 of 9 targets for 94 receiving yards and a TD in Week 10 vs. the Vikings. Perhaps the most interesting note from this performance is that the second-year wideout had a considerably better connection with QB Jameis Winston on Sunday. Olave had only a single 15-yard catch prior to QB Derek Carr (concussion, shoulder) exiting the contest in the third quarter. With Winston in tow, he accumulated a receiving line of 7-79-1. It’s too soon to say if there will be any significance to this fact, given that the Saints are heading into their bye week. However, if Carr is unable to recover from injury by Week 12 vs. the Falcons, it might spell good news for Olave. It’ll be important to follow Carr’s progress over the next couple of weeks.
Lions QB Jared Goff won a 41-38 duel over QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 10. Detroit's running game was dominant in this one, with RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery racking up 193 yards and three TDs. But Goff was excellent when called upon, completing 23 of 33 passes (69.7%) for 333 yards (10.1 YPA), two TDs, and 0 INTs. His first TD came on a screen to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. But the second was a perfectly thrown pass down the seam to TE Brock Wright from 25 yards out. The Lions remain a run-centric offense, but OC Ben Johnson has the entire unit cooking, giving Goff plenty of weekly upside. He has the 10th easiest QB schedule from Weeks 11 to 17. And only one of those seven games has potential for bad weather (Week 14 in Chicago). Goff has a chance to score as a top-12 fantasy QB the rest of the way.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf exited Week 10 with 7 catches, 98 yards, and a 25.5% target share. The 16.8 PPR points are his second most on what's been a frustrating season overall. Sunday, though, he was able to take advantage of perhaps the league’s worst secondary. (Rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes was even ejected in the first half.) Metcalf also benefited from 47 Geno Smith pass attempts. Look for more WR2 fantasy lines in the future, as Metcalf has the benefit of an excellent WR schedule.
Lions RB David Montgomery had an awesome 75-yard TD run in the 41-38 Week 10 win over the Chargers. He made multiple defenders miss at the first and second levels -- and then flashed impressive speed to outrun the rest of the Chargers defense to the end zone. Unfortunately, that's the only positive we can take from Montgomery's Week 10. He totaled just 41 scoreless yards on his other 11 carries. Montgomery trailed RB Jahmyr Gibbs in carries (14 to 12) and targets (5 to 0). Gibbs even out-carried Montgomery four to two inside the Los Angeles 10-yard line. That's particularly worrisome considering 40% of Montgomery's PPR production this season has come via TDs. And five of his seven TDs have come from inside the 10. If Montgomery is going to split carries with Gibbs -- and cede most of the passing-game work -- he'll struggle to produce as more than a low-end RB2 the rest of the way. We'll see if this backfield usage continues in Week 11 against the Bears. That plus matchup should at least keep Montgomery in starting fantasy lineups.
Week 10 provided fantasy managers with a pair of quality performances from Steelers RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The duo split playing time in the contest (33 snaps apiece), saw a near-identical share of touches (Harris 20, Warren 19) on Sunday, and each scored a rushing TD. Harris’ 96 total yards in Week 10 notch the second-highest sum he’s recorded all season, and Warren’s 101 rushing yards marks his career-high. As exciting as these achievements are, fantasy managers should be wary of the tandem in Week 11 vs. a Browns defense that ranks as the fourth-toughest matchup per our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Packers WR Christian Watson flopped again in Week 10, hauling in just 2 of his 7 targets for 23 receiving yards vs. the Steelers. It’s fair to question at this point whether or not fantasy managers should continue to consider putting Watson into lineups. He’s now averaged a poor 2.3 receptions and 40 receiving yards per game in 2023, and the rapport between him and QB Jordan Love hasn’t come through. In fact, 5 of the 10 INTs that Love has thrown this season have come when targeting Watson, per The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman. How much blame to assign the WR vs. the QB barely matters. Expect to find Watson well outside the top 36 in our weekly WR rankings until something changes. It's even OK to consider dropping him in shallower leagues.
Packers RB Aaron Jones received 13 carries for 35 rushing yards with 4 catches for 19 receiving yards in Week 10 vs. the Steelers. This isn’t the type of performance you’d like to see from him in a plus matchup, though the story isn’t as bad as it seems on the surface. Jones’ 55.8% snap rate on Sunday is about on par with his season-high 56.9% mark set last week, and he still accounted for 61.2% of the Packers' RB touch opportunities in the contest. Fantasy managers would be wise to stick with Jones in Week 11 vs. the Chargers (11th-best RB matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed).
Packers QB Jordan Love completed 21 of 40 passes for a season-high 289 yards with 2 TD and 2 INTs in Week 10 vs. the Steelers. Though he played well enough for fantasy managers to be somewhat happy, Love now ranks tied for first in the NFL with 10 INTs through nine games played. That doesn't hurt his fantasy scoring in most formats as much as it does his real-life team. But it does highlight the erratic play that makes Love difficult to trust in fantasy lineups. Week 11 could be a nice spot for Love against a Chargers defense that ranks as the easiest QB matchup per our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But it's not enough to make him a recommended starter in typically sized leagues.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson took a season-high 22 carries for 95 yards (4.3 per rush) and a TD in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals. That beat his previous high by 3 carries and marked eight more rushing attempts than he had received in a game since Week 2. Robinson's TD came from 5 yards out, just his third carry from inside the 10-yard line all season -- and his first since Week 6. Tyler Allgeier carried just nine times in a game that found Atlanta leading throughout the first half and the lead going back and forth after the break. Robinson added just one 11-yard catch among 2 targets, but only two teammates drew more targets as Atlanta attempted only 21 passes (vs. 41 rushes). If this signals a change in work split, then Robinson could be a fantasy difference maker the rest of the way. Atlanta now gets a Week 11 bye but faces four strongly positive matchups among the final six games after the bye.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs racked up 112 total yards and 2 TDs in the 41-38 Week 10 win over the Chargers. He looked as explosive as ever, ripping off five gains of 10+ yards. And Gibbs' usage was even more exciting than the fantasy production. The rookie out-carried RB David Montgomery 14-12 and out-targeted him 5-0. Gibbs even out-carried Montgomery 4-2 inside the Chargers' 10-yard line, punching in a pair of 1-yard TDs. One game does not make a trend, but we're expecting this type of backfield split to continue going forward. Gibbs has simply been awesome the past few games -- and the Lions did spend the 12th overall pick of this year's draft on him. If Gibbs can continue to get somewhere around 50% of the total carries and goal-line carries, while also dominating passing-down work, he'll have a good chance to score as a fantasy RB1 the rest of the way.
Cardinals RB James Conner claimed 16 of 19 RB carries Sunday in his return from the knee injury that landed him on IR for four games. Conner took those for 73 yards (4.6 per rush) but watched QBs Kyler Murray and Clayton Tune claim the team's two rushing scores. No Cardinals RB drew a target, but Conner's 13 pass routes led the position and marked a 36% route rate. That last number marks potential trouble once RB Emari Demercado returns to health. But Conner can help fantasy lineups even just as lead rusher and part-time backfield receiver going forward. Arizona gets a solid RB-scoring matchup with Houston in Week 11.
Cardinals TE Trey McBride led the team in targets (9), receptions (8), and receiving yards (131) in Sunday's win over the Falcons, the first game this season with QB Kyler Murray. McBride drew a target on 28.1% of Murray's attempts, claimed 42.1% of the team's receptions, and accounted for 52.6% of the team's receiving yards. It marked his third straight game of heavy usage following the injury that landed TE Zach Ertz on IR. McBride has drawn target shares of 25% or better in each of those games, with three different starters at QB. We'd be surprised if the second-year TE falls out of fantasy relevance even after Ertz is eligible to return. McBride looks like a weekly fantasy starter going forward. WR Rondale Moore checked in second on the team in targets (8), receptions (5), and receiving yards (43). WR Marquise Brown managed just 1 reception for 28 yards on 4 targets. Expect the pass offense -- beyond McBride -- to improve as Murray gets further into his return.
Titans QB Will Levis threw for just 199 yards on 19-of-39 passing in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. That included 0 TDs, 1 INT and 4 sacks. WR Kyle Philips was the only Titan to exceed 42 receiving yards, catching three passes for 61 yards among 5 targets. WR DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 8 targets but tallied just 3 receptions for 27 yards. This was the same Tampa Bay defense -- actually, without top CB Carlton Davis (toe injury) -- that allowed Texans QB C.J. Stroud 470 yards and 5 TDs the week before. It was the kind of performance that should tell you how risky Levis will be going forward. No remaining matchup on Tennessee's schedule has been as positive for QB scoring as the Bucs have.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White took a short pass for a 43-yard TD in Sunday's win over the Titans. That drove White's fantasy day. That single play accounted for 57.9% of his PPR points. But he also reached 20 carries for the second straight game and claimed 23 of 27 Tampa Bay RB opportunities (85.2%). This workhorse role and White's recent receiving production make him a weekly starter for most fantasy football lineups. Tampa Bay's remaining schedule looks neutral for RB scoring.
Browns TE David Njoku tied his season high with 9 targets in Sunday's win over the Ravens. He also matched his season high of 6 receptions and posted his second-highest yardage total (58). That marks four straight games of 4+ receptions for Njoku, with three games of 8+ targets in that span. That's enough to make Njoku a comfy weekly start in most leagues, especially because Cleveland gets the fourth-best TE schedule from Week 11 on.
Ravens TE Mark Andrews caught just two passes for 44 yards among 4 targets in Sunday's loss to the Browns. Baltimore attempted only 23 passes for the game, though, and ran a mere 50 offensive plays. (They averaged 64.7 per game entering Sunday.) The performance also came against Cleveland's No. 1 rated defense in both pass DVOA and overall DVOA. And if you're thinking that playing Andrews in such a matchup was a mistake, remember that he posted a 5-80-2 receiving line in the first meeting. Baltimore attempted just 19 passes in that meeting. Andrews remains a weekly fantasy starter across matchups.
Giants WR Jalin Hyatt sustained a concussion in the second half of Sunday's loss to the Cowboys. That'll likely knock the rookie out for Week 11's game vs. the Commanders. Hyatt, of course, was not a realistic fantasy play with QB Tommy DeVito.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson completed just 13 of 23 passes for 223 yards in Sunday's loss to the Browns. He did find WR Odell Beckham Jr. for a 40-yard TD but also tossed 2 INTs. In spite of running for 41 yards on 8 carries, Jackson posted a third straight weak fantasy score. It was also the fifth time among his past six games that Jackson accounted for 1 TD or fewer. Baltimore entered the game ranked first in the league in rushing TDs, second in rushing attempts, 31st in pass attempts and 21st in TD passes. That has to factor into Jackson's projection the rest of the way. He does, however, get positive QB-scoring matchups in four of the remaining six games.
Ravens RB Gus Edwards led the team with 11 carries in Sunday's loss to the Browns. He managed just 24 yards -- his lowest total all season -- but scored for the fourth straight game. That last stat has been key to Edwards' fantasy value (and his risk). The biggest positive from Sunday was Edwards reclaiming the backfield rush lead after resting through the second half of blowout win in Week 9. His 11 attempts vs. Cleveland more than doubled the combined total (5) of Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. The schedule looks merely decent the next weeks, before a Week 13 bye. And Baltimore has no strongly positive rushing matchups the rest of the way. That could give Edwards some sell potential, but don't be afraid to just hold him for the TD upside if you can't get a good return.
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