The Seahawks selected UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Charbonnet got off to a rough start to his college career at Michigan but managed to find his way high up draft boards after a pair of stellar seasons at UCLA. He doesn’t have a singular trait that sticks out and makes you say “wow,” but he checks several boxes prospective managers will love. Charbonnet has the size at 6’0, 214 pounds. His 4.53-second 40-yard speed is plenty with his frame. Plus, Charbonnet can be trusted as a short-area pass-catcher. His targets nearly doubled from 2021 to 2022 en route to finishing his senior season with 1,680 scrimmage yards, showing he’s one of the small handful of RBs in this class with three-down potential at the next level. He just won’t be placed in that role in the short-term. Charbonnet landed with a Seahawks squad already featuring Kenneth Walker, who finished as a top-20 fantasy RB as a rookie. Current projections have Charbonnet as the PPR RB50.
Michigan State WR Jayden Reed went to the Packers in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Reed broke out immediately at Western Michigan, outproducing then-junior D’Wayne Eskridge as a true freshman. Reed also quickly carved out a role after transferring to Michigan State, earning 22% of targets or more in each of his three seasons with the Spartans. Reed played inside and outside at MSU and was terrific as a college punt returner (15.3 yards per return, 3 TDs). Senior Bowl week found him working almost exclusively in the slot, which will be Reed’s most likely path to NFL receiving success. (Read more about his development and fantasy outlook in his Dynasty Fantasy Football Value report.) In Green Bay, Reed figures to compete with Romeo Doubs for the No. 2 role behind Christian Watson. The rookie won’t be a priority target in redraft, but if Jordan Love hits, Reed could quickly climb the Dynasty WR Rankings.
The Packers selected Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Musgrave stands 6’6, 253 pounds with Mike Gesicki-like athleticism. The 22-year-old was likely on his way to a breakout 2022 before an early-season MCL tear. That wiped out his final college season, although he returned for the Senior Bowl. Musgrave is largely a bet on athletic traits, as he needs to improve both his hands and his YAC ability. He exits Oregon State with a 16.1% career drop rate and only two forced missed tackles on 47 catches. Prior to tonight, Green Bay featured a pair of uninspiring TEs in Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis. So Musgrave should step into a day-one role alongside Jordan Love. Consider this a strong landing spot for Musgrave's dynasty value.
The Panthers selected Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Mingo is a bet-on-traits prospect. He spent four years at Ole Miss but never led the team in receiving yards and totaled only 12 TDs. His career 25.6% Dominator Rating (share of team receiving yards and receiving TDs) lands in the 40th percentile. But Mingo goes 6’2, 220 pounds with a 4.46-second 40 time and a 39.5-inch vertical. His Combine performance earned him a 98th percentile Relative Athletic Score. That size and athleticism pops on tape. Mingo is a smooth mover who can win deep and after the catch. He was one of 12 WRs in the nation to earn a 99.9 Pro Football Focus grade on deep targets last year – AND averaged a big 7.3 yards after the catch per reception. Mingo lands on a Panthers squad without any long-term, impact WRs. Playing alongside the highly-accurate Bryce Young only adds to Mingo’s dynasty appeal.
The Raiders selected Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Mayer stepped into a starting role as a true freshman. Across three seasons, the Notre Dame TE set records for career catches (180), receiving yards (2,099), and TDs (18). Despite small, 31 5/8” arms, Mayer is a polished, contested-catch winner. The 249-pounder has also proven tough with only one missed game in three seasons. The Raiders certainly had a TE need following the trade of Darren Waller. Austin Hooper joined the club in March, but he’s not much of a barrier to Mayer capturing a three-down role. The 21-year-old could be a TE1 spot-starter this fall.
The Lions chose Iowa TE Sam LaPorta in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s solid draft capital for an undersized TE. LaPorta measured 23rd percentile in height, 17th percentile in weight, and 16th percentile in arm length for the position at the Scouting Combine. But he makes up for that with top-shelf speed and athleticism for the position: 73rd percentile or higher in vertical, 40 time, 3-cone drill, broad jump, and short shuttle. LaPorta also moves like a WR on tape and dominated receiving work over the past three seasons in a poor Iowa offense. (Check out his full Dynasty Fantasy Football Value report.) Detroit entered the draft with poor TE depth, so LaPorta should factor into the offense early on. Jameson Williams’ suspension only helps boost LaPorta's early-season upside.
The Titans traded up to select Kentucky QB Will Levis in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. At Penn State, Levis sat behind QB Sean Clifford – a projected UDFA. So the Connecticut native transferred to Kentucky in 2021. That year turned up his most promising tape, both as a passer and a runner. But when Kentucky lost several key pieces to the NFL — including WR Wan'Dale Robinson — Levis’ play dipped. He also dealt with several 2022 injuries (shoulder, foot, finger), although he missed only two games. With a bodybuilder’s frame, Levis checks boxes for arm strength, toughness, and experience in a pro-style offense. Still, his game needs serious refinement — and that’s concerning at nearly 24 years old. As ESPN’s Adam Schefter notes, Ryan Tannehill is entering the final year of his contract, one that doesn’t call for any guaranteed money. At a minimum, Levis looks poised to compete for Tennessee’s starting job in 2024.
Here's what HC Shane Steichen had to say about QB Anthony Richardson's development shortly after the Colts took him with the fourth overall pick on Thursday night: "I think the development of players comes with more experience... I think when you play more, that's how you develop... practice reps, game reps, I think that's how you develop." That sure doesn't sound like the Colts are planning to keep the relatively inexperienced Richardson on the sidelines for long. Indianapolis does have a capable veteran in QB Gardner Minshew, who might still be the favorite to open the season under center. But we're expecting to see plenty of Richardson this year. Our initial projections have him playing 11 games.
Kentucky QB Will Levis' left toe is "problematic" for at least one team that's considered drafting him, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. Levis missed two games last season with what's been reported as turf toe. He believes the toe has healed, per Mortensen, but another team believes Levis will eventually need surgery. This at least partially explains why Levis dropped out of the first round on Thursday night. We'll see where he ends up landing -- and whether this toe remains a problem. But his dynasty value has taken a big hit.
The Chiefs spent the final pick of Round 1 on Kansas State Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah. The former Wildcat posted nice numbers over the past two years, totaling 25.5 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks over that span. He didn't run a 40-yard dash leading up to the draft because of right foot and left hamstring issues. But Anudike-Uzomah otherwise tested well, including a 91st-percentile 3-cone drill. There's room for him to carve out an early role in Kansas City. Landing in Round 1 figures to move Anudike-Uzomah up our rookie IDP rankings.
The Eagles took Edge Nolan Smith in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Smith opened eyes with tremendous testing at the Scouting Combine. He delivered a 4.39-second 40 time, third fastest ever among edge players. Smith also posted a 95th-percentile broad jump and 98th-percentile vertical. But he’s also tiny for the position: 2nd-percentile weight and 15th-percentile height. More importantly, we don’t love Smith’s college production. He tallied just 15.0 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks total over the past two years. Smith did lose seven games to injury in his senior season, when he was on track for bigger numbers. We'll see how soon he can work into a prominent role in a loaded front seven. See where Smith sat in our pre-draft IDP rookie rankings.
The Bengals chose Edge Myles Murphy 28th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Murphy had a strange progression through three years at Clemson. He led the team with 12.0 tackles for loss as a true freshman in 2020 and then led the Tigers again in 2021. Murphy ranked just third on the team in total pressures as a junior, though. He presents some position versatility along the line and tested well at Clemson’s pro day. Murphy sat inside the top 10 of our pre-draft IDP rookie rankings. He goes to a Cincinnati defense that doesn't have an immediate edge need. Don't be surprised if Murphy sees limited rookie-year time.
The Bills selected Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kincaid is an older prospect at 23 but broke out early at San Diego. Across his first two seasons, he recorded 68 catches, 1,209 yards, and 19 TDs. He transferred to Utah ahead of year three and saved his best work for last fall (70-890-8). Most impressively, he caught all 16 of his targets for 234 yards and one score in a mid-season win over USC. There’s no real flaw in his on-field game. Kincaid wins with advanced route running, reliable hands, and strong YAC ability. He didn’t test in the pre-draft process due to a “tiny” back fracture, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. But he was given a clean bill of health by Dr. Robert Watkins earlier in April. You have to love the fit with Josh Allen, and it’s easy to see Kincaid overtaking Dawson Knox as soon as this season. Just note: Knox’s contract makes it hard for the Bills to move on from him until 2025. The rookie projects as a top-20 fantasy TE.
The Vikings selected USC WR Jordan Addison with the 23rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. broke out as an 18-year-old true freshman at Pittsburgh and then exploded for 1,593 yards and 17 TDs on 100 catches as a sophomore, winning the 2021 Biletnikoff Award as the top receiver in college football. Addison transferred to USC last offseason to play with HC Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams. His stat line wasn’t as spectacular as the previous year, but he still averaged a strong 5.4 catches, 79.5 yards, and 0.73 TDs per game, leading the Trojans in all three categories. Addison’s tape shows a refined route runner and explosive mover who can win at all levels of the field. The concern? He’s just 5’11 and 173 pounds. That weight lands him in the third percentile among WRs invited to the Combine since 1999 and would make him a bit of an outlier if he develops into a high-end fantasy producer. Over the past ten seasons, there have only been four WRs under 180 pounds to top 1,000 receiving yards (DeSean Jackson, John Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Darnell Mooney). Addison projects as an instant starter alongside Justin Jefferson. The rookie should absorb the 107 targets left behind by Adam Thielen.
The Ravens selected Boston College WR Zay Flowers with the 21st pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Flowers dealt with some bad QB play in college. His raw numbers were solid: 2,715 yards and 26 TDs over the past three seasons. But Flowers looks much more impressive from a market-share perspective. He accounted for 32.7% of his team’s receiving yards over the last three years and a whopping 45.6% of the receiving scores. He’s a fun watch on tape: an explosive route runner and dynamic after the catch. The knocks against Flowers? He’s undersized at 5’9, 182 pounds with second percentile arm length. And he’s a four-year college player who will turn 23 in September. The ceiling feels a bit capped here – at least for 2023. Baltimore’s no longer hurting for pass catchers with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham. Flowers projects outside the top-50 in year one.
The Chargers selected TCU WR Quentin Johnston with the 21st pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston goes 6’3, 208 pounds but plays smaller. That’s not necessarily a knock. He’s one of the most impressive after-catch receivers we’ve seen come into the league in recent memory. He combines good agility and burst with plenty of physicality with the ball in his hands. Johnston averaged a huge 8.9 yards after the catch at TCU last year. He’s also a weapon on deep balls, leaving school with a career 19.0 yards-per-catch average. But Johnston struggles more than you’d expect in tight coverage. He converted just 42.7% of his contested opportunities over three college seasons, according to PFF, including just eight of 23 (34.8%) last year. His hands are inconsistent (10.7% drop rate last year). And his route running needs work. Johnston certainly isn’t the safest WR prospect – but he might have the highest fantasy ceiling in this year’s class. Landing in a Justin Herbert-led offense only helps. Just keep 2023 expectations in check, as long as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy. Current projections land Johnston in WR4/5 range.
The Seahawks selected Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. JSN turned in one of the most impressive sophomore seasons we’ve ever seen back in 2021. He racked up 95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine TDs, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave while also beating those eventual first-round picks in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. A lingering hamstring injury limited Smith-Njigba to 60 total snaps this past year. But he was healthy enough to work out in the pre-draft process, where he posted elite marks in the 3-cone and short shuttle. That agility shows up on tape: JSN is impossible to stick with one-on-one and regularly adds yardage after the catch. Smith-Njibga has just-ok size (6’1, 196 lbs.) and speed (4.52-second 40 time), which puts a cap on his big-play upside. But he looks capable of quickly emerging as a high-volume target. Think Amon-Ra St. Brown. With the Seahawks, JSN will fit in as a day-one slot. Note that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are signed through the 2025 season.
The Buccaneers selected DT Calijah Kancey in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Kancey enjoyed a highly productive three years at Pittsburgh. He averaged 0.93 tackles for loss per game for his career; 1.32 per game for his final season. Kancey delivered a 99th-percentile 40 time at the Scouting Combine. He’s minuscule for the position by historical standards, though: 6’1, 281 pounds, with 1st-percentile arm length. We’re not betting against the upside, but those measurements make Kancey risky. Playing next to block-eating DT Vita Vea should help. See where we valued Kancey in our pre-draft IDP rookie rankings.
The Lions spent the 18th overall pick of the NFL Draft on LB Jack Campbell. The former Iowa LB delivered strong tackle numbers across four seasons, including leading FBS in that category in 2021. He also defensed 15 passes over the past three years. Campbell closed his Hawkeyes career by earning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and the Butkus Award (nation's top LB) in 2022. He followed that with an 80th-percentile speed score and 9.98 relative athletic score (out of 10). That's the sixth best among 2,600 LB prospects since 1987. We'll see about Campbell's immediate fit in Detroit, which re-signed LB Alex Anzalone in free agency. But Campbell clearly fits squarely into the Lions' defensive plans going forward. He sat No. 2 in our IDP rookie rankings heading into the draft.
The Jets spent the 15th overall pick on Edge Will McDonald IV. McDonald posted a pair of double-digit sack seasons across five years at Iowa State. (He redshirted in 2018.) McDonald delivered a lackluster 40 time (4.75 seconds) for his size (239 pounds), though, producing a 31st-percentile speed score among edge players. He joins a Jets defense that could use some juice on the edge, with last year's first-round pick Jermaine Johnson and Carl Lawson as the top incumbents. See where McDonald landed in our pre-draft IDP rookie rankings.
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